Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2671 GP	H238 GP	H133 GP	Prev 3thin
TOI	13.01	12.32	11.66	12.39	–
PP TOI	1.32	1.56	1.12	2.06	–
G	21	20	18	21	–
A	16	15	15	15	–
PTS	37	35	34	36	–
PPP	6	9	6	12	–
SOG	129	119	99	142	–
PIM	23	16	26	5	–
Hits	67	61	67	55	–
Blocks	29	29	22	37	–

Sample: 71 GP · 741 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingRight wing · league-wide (of 273)

162Justin Danforth-14

163Anthony Beauvillier-14

164Alex Iafallo-16

165Matthew Wood-17

166Conor Geekie-17

167Drew O'Connor-17

168Luke Kunin-17

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

PP TOI

PP TOI finished the year 45% below where it started (2.05 in the first half, 1.12 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half fade

PPP

Power play points ran at a 6 pace in the second half after 12 in the first, per 82 games.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Jack QuinnRW · Buffalo Sabres85% match
Cole PerfettiLW,RW · Winnipeg Jets85% match
Igor ChernyshovLW · San Jose Sharks82% match
Josh DoanLW,RW · Buffalo Sabres80% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Matthew Wood is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Evgeni MalkinC,LW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 3
fills: A, PIM, SOG
Mathew BarzalC,RW · New York Islanderscovers 3
fills: A, SOG, PIM
Matvei MichkovLW,RW · Philadelphia Flyerscovers 3
fills: PIM, A, SOG
Gavin McKennaLW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: A, PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Andrew Brunette (NSH)

Last year: Andrew Brunette full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
TOI	13.01	12.32	n/a
5v5 TOI	11.33	10.44	n/a
PP TOI	1.32	1.56	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 20 · 19 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 13.01: one NHL season — role grown +6% toward a sophomore workload
5v5 TOI → 11.33: one NHL season — role grown +6% toward a sophomore workload
PP TOI → 1.32: role tapered late (Q4 1.2 vs 1.6 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
SOG/60	6.25	6.07	n/a
G/60	1.00	0.97	n/a
iSH%	15.98	15.98	n/a
ixG/60	–	0.71	n/a
iCF/60	–	11.98	n/a
iSCF/60	–	7.45	n/a
iHDCF/60	–	2.91	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 20 · 19 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.91 (1st half) to 0.58 (2nd).

TailwindAge 21 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

TailwindAge 21 on a single NHL season — projected a development step, not a flat repeat: scoring rates +8% and role +6% toward the mid-20s peak (a young riser improves on last year, not repeats it).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
on-ice SH%	11.23	11.23	n/a
IPP	56.67	56.67	n/a
1A/60	0.65	0.65	n/a
2A/60	0.08	0.08	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 20 · 19 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 11.2%, IPP 56.7%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PP TOI	1.32	1.56	n/a
PP iSH%	19.04	19.04	n/a
PP SOG/60	8.69	11.40	n/a
PP ixG/60	–	1.77	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 20 · 19 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 1.6→1.3 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 1.2 vs 1.6 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PIMs/60	1.53	1.13	n/a
Hits/60	4.29	4.29	n/a
Blks/60	1.83	2.02	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 20 · 19 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 4.29/60 (53rd pct league-wide) → 4.29 projected.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.66/60 and 2nd-half 1.48 below the 2.02 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.83/60, weighting the recent decline over the n/a 3-yr mark.