Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2673 GP	H236 GP	H137 GP	Prev 3118 GP · 2y
TOI	17.12	16.91	16.57	16.01	18.63
PP TOI	1.41	1.38	1.46	1.30	1.57
G	6	8	11	4	6
A	24	21	12	30	26
PTS	30	29	24	34	32
PPP	9	6	2	9	13
SOG	88	81	98	64	94
PIM	22	22	27	18	24
Hits	28	34	25	42	40
Blocks	106	104	99	110	115

Sample: 73 GP · 1,078 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

171Isaak Phillips-18

172Dylan DeMelo-18

173Alec Regula-18

174Mason Lohrei-18

175Radim Mrtka-18

176Colin Miller-18

177Dakota Mermis-18

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

PPP

Power play points ran at a 2 pace in the second half after 9 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 79% above where it started (6.22 in the first half, 11.12 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it down

all5v5

We’re projecting goals 25% below last season, 8 to 6.

Above his 3-year rate

PP SOG/60

PP SOG/60 ran 23% above his 3-year rate last season (8.37 against 6.79).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Owen PowerD · Buffalo Sabres86% match
Simon NemecD · Calgary Flames81% match
Vladislav GavrikovD · New York Rangers80% match
Rasmus RistolainenD · Philadelphia Flyers77% match

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Mason Lohrei is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Brandon MontourD · Seattle Krakencovers 3
fills: SOG, PIM, Hits
Dougie HamiltonD · New Jersey Devilscovers 3
fills: SOG, PIM, Hits
Rasmus DahlinD · Buffalo Sabrescovers 2
fills: PIM, SOG
Arber XhekajD · Montreal Canadienscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Marco Sturm (BOS)

Last year: Marco Sturm full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	17.12	16.91	18.63	-9%
5v5 TOI	15.21	14.77	15.88	-7%
PP TOI	1.41	1.38	1.57	-13%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 20 · 21 · 15

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 17.12: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 15.21: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 1.41: holds last year's role

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.24	3.12	3.33	-6%
G/60	0.24	0.28	0.22	+25%
iSH%	7.39	8.97	6.71	+34%
ixG/60	–	0.20	0.21	-5%
iCF/60	–	8.74	8.84	-1%
iSCF/60	–	2.50	2.66	-6%
iHDCF/60	–	0.39	0.55	-29%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 20 · 21 · 15

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 9.0% vs a 6.7% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.20 (22nd pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 7.4% pulls the goal rate ~14% down.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.15→0.24 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.11	10.10	10.12	-0%
IPP	38.79	42.37	31.52	+34%
1A/60	0.31	0.45	0.13	+245%
2A/60	0.42	0.39	0.45	-13%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 20 · 21 · 15

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskIPP spiked to 42.4% vs 31.5% 3-yr — point participation this far above baseline rarely holds; assist share likely gives a little back.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.41	1.38	1.57	-13%
PP iSH%	11.67	14.34	9.58	+50%
PP SOG/60	8.05	8.37	6.79	+23%
PP ixG/60	–	0.98	0.54	+82%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 20 · 21 · 15

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~1.4 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 0.98 vs 0.54) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.20	1.11	0.90	+24%
Hits/60	1.34	1.67	1.73	-3%
Blks/60	4.65	4.79	4.93	-3%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 20 · 21 · 15

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 0.26/60 and 2nd-half 1.11 below the 1.67 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.34/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.73 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 3.32/60 and 2nd-half 4.22 below the 4.79 season rate — projected DOWN to 4.65/60, weighting the recent decline over the 4.93 3-yr mark.