Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2629 GP	H24 GP	H125 GP	Prev 3thin
TOI	14.47	14.47	–	14.75	–
PP TOI	0.01	0.01	–	0.02	–
G	0	0	–	0	–
A	8	9	–	10	–
PTS	8	9	–	10	–
PPP	0	0	–	0	–
SOG	51	51	–	46	–
PIM	99	99	–	108	–
Hits	43	42	–	45	–
Blocks	125	124	–	126	–

Sample: 29 GP · 391 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

170Tristan Luneau-18

171Isaak Phillips-18

172Dylan DeMelo-18

173Alec Regula-18

174Mason Lohrei-18

175Radim Mrtka-18

176Colin Miller-18

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Bottom of the league

PP TOI

PP TOI sits in the 5th percentile league-wide (0.01).

Bottom of the league

ixG/60

ixG/60 sits in the 3th percentile league-wide (0.10).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Connor MurphyD · Edmonton Oilers77% match
shared: PIM
Maveric LamoureuxD · Utah Mammoth77% match
shared: PIM
Timothy LiljegrenD · Washington Capitals75% match
Simon EdvinssonD · Detroit Red Wings73% match
shared: PIM

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Alec Regula is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Jake SandersonD · Ottawa Senatorscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Mike Babcock (EDM) new voice

Last year: Kris Knoblauch full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
TOI	14.47	14.47	n/a
5v5 TOI	13.56	13.48	n/a
PP TOI	0.01	0.01	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 9 · 16 · 4 · 0

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 14.47: holds the rookie-season role
5v5 TOI → 13.56: holds the rookie-season role
PP TOI → 0.01: new coach (Mike Babcock) — late-year 0.0 role discounted until the new staff sets usage

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
SOG/60	2.76	2.76	n/a
G/60	0.00	0.00	n/a
iSH%	0.00	0.00	n/a
ixG/60	–	0.10	n/a
iCF/60	–	7.83	n/a
iSCF/60	–	1.53	n/a
iHDCF/60	–	0.15	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 9 · 16 · 4 · 0

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
on-ice SH%	4.55	4.55	n/a
IPP	37.40	37.40	n/a
1A/60	0.15	0.15	n/a
2A/60	0.31	0.31	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 9 · 16 · 4 · 0

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 4.6%, IPP 37.4%).

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PP TOI	0.01	0.01	n/a
PP iSH%	–	n/a	n/a
PP SOG/60	0.00	0.00	n/a
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 9 · 16 · 4 · 0

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.0→0.0 PP TOI/gp (new coach (Mike Babcock) — late-year 0.0 role discounted until the new staff sets usage) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PIMs/60	5.37	5.37	n/a
Hits/60	2.15	2.15	n/a
Blks/60	5.98	5.98	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 9 · 16 · 4 · 0

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 2.15/60 (27th pct league-wide) → 2.15 projected.

TailwindElite blocks volume (99th pct) and role-stable — a bankable blocks floor (5.98/60 projected).

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.15/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.