🏒@HockeyBangers2026-27 projections

Overview

@HockeyBangers

2026-27 Projection

Dakota Mermis

TOR · Age 32.6 · 🇺🇸 USA · 6′0″, 195 lb · Undrafted
TORteam
Dposition
177position rank
494skater rank
-18overall
-56offense
37peripherals
goals
5
assists
9
points
14
power play points
0
shots on goal
66
penalty minutes
74
hits
73
blocked shots
106

Value over replacement, based on 82 games played.
Ideal for H2H 12-team banger category leagues, 16 roster spots.

Per 82 GP2026-27projection2025-26thinH225-26H111 GPPrev 347 GP · 1y
TOI14.09––12.3414.09
PP TOI0.13–––0.13
G5–––5
A9–––9
PTS14–––14
PPP0–––0
SOG66–––73
PIM74–––58
Hits73–––79
Blocks106–––103

Sample: 11 GP · 135 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)
174Mason Lohrei-18
175Radim Mrtka-18
176Colin Miller-18
177Dakota Mermis-18
178Ilya Lyubushkin-19
179Jonas Siegenthaler-19
180Jayden Struble-20
offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense
Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit
Complementary Defense
Same position, opposite profile — strong where Dakota Mermis is weak or average, light where he’s strong
  • Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
    fills: A, PPP, SOG
  • Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
    fills: SOG, A, PPP
  • Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
    fills: A, PPP, SOG
  • Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
    fills: A, PPP, SOG
Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)
This player
GAPPPSOGPIMHitsBlocks
the profile below
vs Similar
GAPPPSOGPIMHitsBlocks
similar players hug the shape
vs Complementary
GAPPPSOGPIMHitsBlocks
complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)
Coaching
2026-27 · Jim Hiller (TOR) new voice
Last year: Craig Berube full season — no change
Metric26-27
proj		2025-26Prev 3Diff
TOI14.09n/a14.09
5v5 TOI12.80n/a12.80
PP TOI0.13n/a0.13
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  6 · 5 · 0 · 0
TOI*
3-yr 14.0912.14Q1Q2Q3Q4
5v5 TOI
3-yr 12.8012.14Q1Q2Q3Q4
*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.
By season — year over year
TOI
14.0922-2323-2424-2525-2626-27
5v5 TOI
12.8022-2323-2424-2525-2626-27
PP TOI
0.1322-2323-2424-2525-2626-27

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)26-27
proj		2025-26Prev 3Diff
SOG/603.21n/a3.99
G/600.24n/a0.30
iSH%7.52n/a7.52
ixG/60–n/a0.19
iCF/60–n/a11.57
iSCF/60–n/a3.29
iHDCF/60–n/a0.50
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  6 · 5 · 0 · 0
SOG/60
3-yr 3.991.98Q1Q2Q3Q4
iSH%
3-yr 7.520.00Q1Q2Q3Q4
ixG/60
3-yr 0.190.09Q1Q2Q3Q4
iCF/60
3-yr 11.572.97Q1Q2Q3Q4
iSCF/60
3-yr 3.290.00Q1Q2Q3Q4
iHDCF/60
3-yr 0.500.00Q1Q2Q3Q4
By season — year over year
SOG/60
3.9922-2323-2424-2525-26
iSH%
7.5222-2323-2424-2525-26
ixG/60
0.1922-2323-2424-2525-26
iCF/60
11.5722-2323-2424-2525-26
iSCF/60
3.2922-2323-2424-2525-26
iHDCF/60
0.5022-2323-2424-2525-26
Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection
G
522-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
SOG
6622-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
ContextNo 2025-26 sample — goals/shots projected off the prior 3-yr profile, held flat.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)26-27
proj		2025-26Prev 3Diff
on-ice SH%7.97n/a7.97
IPP38.10n/a38.10
1A/600.20n/a0.20
2A/600.30n/a0.30
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  6 · 5 · 0 · 0
1A/60
3-yr 0.200.00Q1Q2Q3Q4
2A/60
3-yr 0.300.00Q1Q2Q3Q4
By season — year over year
1A/60
0.2022-2323-2424-2525-26
2A/60
0.3022-2323-2424-2525-26
Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection
A
922-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
PTS
1422-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.0%, IPP 38.1%).
ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric26-27
proj		2025-26Prev 3Diff
PP TOI0.13n/a0.13
PP iSH%–n/an/a
PP SOG/600.00n/a0.00
PP ixG/60–n/a0.00
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  6 · 5 · 0 · 0
PP TOI/GP
3-yr 0.13Q1Q2Q3Q4
PP SOG/60
3-yr 0.00Q1Q2Q3Q4
PP ixG/60
3-yr 0.00Q1Q2Q3Q4
By season — year over year
PP TOI/GP
0.1322-2323-2424-2525-26
PP SOG/60
0.0022-2323-2424-2525-26
PP ixG/60
0.0022-2323-2424-2525-26
Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection
PPP
022-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
PPG
022-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
PPA
022-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
ContextLittle/no PP role — PP points capped regardless of finishing.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)26-27
proj		2025-26Prev 3Diff
PIMs/604.44n/a3.29
Hits/603.63n/a3.89
Blks/604.87n/a4.69
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  6 · 5 · 0 · 0
PIMs/60
3-yr 3.2910.87Q1Q2Q3Q4
Hits/60
3-yr 3.892.97Q1Q2Q3Q4
Blks/60
3-yr 4.697.91Q1Q2Q3Q4
By season — year over year
PIMs/60
3.2922-2323-2424-2525-26
Hits/60
3.8922-2323-2424-2525-26
Blks/60
4.6922-2323-2424-2525-26
Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection
PIM
7422-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
HITS
7322-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
BLK
10622-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
RiskHits tailing off: Q4 2.97/60 and 2nd-half 3.49 below the 3.89 season rate — projected DOWN to 3.63/60, weighting the recent decline over the 3.89 3-yr mark.
TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 7.91/60 and 2nd-half 4.36 vs a 4.69 season rate (4.69 3-yr) (90th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 4.87/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.
TailwindFights / takes majors (0.10/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.