Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H241 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3192 GP · 3y
TOI	19.51	19.48	18.54	19.30	19.75
PP TOI	0.04	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.08
G	1	0	0	0	3
A	14	16	25	7	14
PTS	15	16	25	7	17
PPP	0	0	0	0	0
SOG	72	60	46	74	85
PIM	47	48	40	56	46
Hits	79	92	61	123	112
Blocks	134	135	130	140	140

Sample: 82 GP · 1,405 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

176Colin Miller-18

177Dakota Mermis-18

178Ilya Lyubushkin-19

179Jonas Siegenthaler-19

180Jayden Struble-20

181Stian Solberg-20

182Declan Carlile-20

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

HITS

all5v5

Hits ran at a 61 pace in the second half after 123 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 40 pace in the second half after 56 in the first, per 82 games.

Bottom of the league

SOG/60

SOG/60 sits in the 3th percentile league-wide (2.48).

We project it down

all5v5

We’re projecting assists 12% below last season, 16 to 14.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Timothy LiljegrenD · Washington Capitals85% match
Connor MurphyD · Edmonton Oilers82% match
shared: Hits, PIM
Connor CliftonD · Boston Bruins82% match
shared: Hits, PIM
Adam LarssonD · Seattle Kraken81% match
shared: Hits

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Jonas Siegenthaler is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Sheldon Keefe (NJD)

Last year: Sheldon Keefe full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	19.51	19.48	19.75	-1%
5v5 TOI	17.07	17.14	16.96	+1%
PP TOI	0.04	0.05	0.08	-38%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 23 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 19.51: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 17.07: established top role held near 17.1 — the late dip (Q4 16.5) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage
PP TOI → 0.04: role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.0 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	2.34	2.48	3.34	-26%
G/60	0.00	0.00	0.11	-100%
iSH%	1.64	0.00	3.28	-100%
ixG/60	–	0.14	0.13	+11%
iCF/60	–	7.00	8.29	-16%
iSCF/60	–	1.96	2.10	-7%
iHDCF/60	–	0.64	0.20	+217%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 23 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 0.0% vs 3.3% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.14 (11th pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 1.6%, lifting the goal rate ~-6%.

RiskShot volume down 26% (5v5 SOG/60 2.48 vs 3.34) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.11→0.18 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	7.27	6.96	8.41	-17%
IPP	25.67	25.54	26.04	-2%
1A/60	0.10	0.09	0.18	-51%
2A/60	0.37	0.38	0.37	+3%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 23 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 7.0%, IPP 25.5%).

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 0.64 vs 0.20) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.04	0.05	0.08	-38%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	100.00
PP SOG/60	0.81	0.00	4.07	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	1.40	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 23 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 0.0→0.0 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.0 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.73	1.96	1.95	+0%
Hits/60	3.13	3.63	4.20	-14%
Blks/60	4.66	4.74	4.54	+4%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 23 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 1.61/60 and 2nd-half 2.27 below the 3.63 season rate — projected DOWN to 3.13/60, weighting the recent decline over the 4.20 3-yr mark.

TailwindElite blocks volume (90th pct) and role-stable — a bankable blocks floor (4.66/60 projected).

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.09/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.