Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2659 GP	H227 GP	H132 GP	Prev 3112 GP · 2y
TOI	14.08	14.02	12.94	14.32	15.53
PP TOI	0.02	0.02	0.03	0.01	0.06
G	3	3	6	0	4
A	13	14	14	14	13
PTS	16	17	20	14	17
PPP	0	0	0	0	0
SOG	51	36	47	27	69
PIM	72	81	73	87	80
Hits	163	160	176	146	180
Blocks	62	44	48	41	78

Sample: 59 GP · 798 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

177Dakota Mermis-18

178Ilya Lyubushkin-19

179Jonas Siegenthaler-19

180Jayden Struble-20

181Stian Solberg-20

182Declan Carlile-20

183Victor Soderstrom-20

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 100% above his 3-year rate last season (8.67 against 4.33).

We project it up

BLK

all5v5

We’re projecting blocks 41% above last season, 44 to 62.

Below his 3-year rate

SOG/60

SOG/60 ran 48% below his 3-year rate last season (1.73 against 3.35).

Second-half surge

Hits/60

Hits/60 finished the year 43% above where it started (7.39 in the first half, 10.57 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Donovan SebrangoD · Florida Panthers95% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Tyler TuckerD · St. Louis Blues94% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Arber XhekajD · Montreal Canadiens93% match
shared: PIM, Hits
Lian BichselD · Dallas Stars92% match
shared: Hits, PIM

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Jayden Struble is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Martin St. Louis (MTL)

Last year: Martin St. Louis full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	14.08	14.02	15.53	-10%
5v5 TOI	13.28	13.54	14.72	-8%
PP TOI	0.02	0.02	0.06	-71%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 16 · 9 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 14.08: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.28: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.02: same coach (Martin St. Louis) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.0, Q4 0.0) over the full-year 0.0

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	1.73	1.73	3.35	-48%
G/60	0.11	0.15	0.14	+4%
iSH%	5.63	8.67	4.33	+100%
ixG/60	–	0.11	0.14	-22%
iCF/60	–	6.46	9.46	-32%
iSCF/60	–	2.10	2.40	-13%
iHDCF/60	–	0.23	0.36	-37%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 16 · 9 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 8.7% vs a 4.3% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.11 (5th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 5.6% pulls the goal rate ~28% down.

RiskShot volume down 48% (5v5 SOG/60 1.73 vs 3.35) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.08→0.12 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.56	11.56	9.17	+26%
IPP	32.42	31.56	34.31	-8%
1A/60	0.36	0.38	0.29	+30%
2A/60	0.37	0.30	0.36	-17%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 16 · 9 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 11.6% vs a 9.2% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.02	0.02	0.06	-71%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	n/a
PP SOG/60	0.00	0.00	0.00
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	0.00

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 16 · 9 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.0→0.0 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Martin St. Louis) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.0, Q4 0.0) over the full-year 0.0) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	3.91	4.36	3.31	+32%
Hits/60	8.89	8.49	8.73	-3%
Blks/60	2.80	2.25	3.71	-39%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 16 · 16 · 9 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 9.10/60 and 2nd-half 10.57 vs a 8.49 season rate (8.73 3-yr) (81st pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 8.89/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 3.11/60 and 2nd-half 2.19 vs a 2.25 season rate (3.71 3-yr) (41st pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.80/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.15/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.