Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2662 GP	H222 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3238 GP · 3y
TOI	12.90	12.48	11.09	12.88	15.27
PP TOI	0.23	0.16	0.06	0.21	1.50
G	12	11	13	10	16
A	14	11	9	12	23
PTS	26	21	21	21	38
PPP	0	0	0	0	4
SOG	93	77	67	82	137
PIM	37	56	37	66	35
Hits	93	86	123	66	86
Blocks	37	37	51	29	30

Sample: 62 GP · 730 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

215Brett Berard-34

216Nikita Grebenkin-34

217Noah Gregor-34

218Andrew Mangiapane-35

219Paul Cotter-35

220Dryden Hunt-35

221Zach Aston-Reese-35

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

Blks/60

Blks/60 finished the year 123% above where it started (1.52 in the first half, 3.38 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

Hits/60

Hits/60 finished the year 104% above where it started (3.94 in the first half, 8.05 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it up

all5v5

We’re projecting assists 27% above last season, 11 to 14.

Below his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 38% below his 3-year rate last season (0.41 against 0.66).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Easton CowanC,RW · Toronto Maple Leafs88% match
shared: Hits
Erik HaulaC,LW · Los Angeles Kings84% match
shared: Hits
Zach BensonLW · Buffalo Sabres84% match
Taylor HallLW · Carolina Hurricanes83% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Andrew Mangiapane is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 3
fills: SOG, PPP, A
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 3
fills: PPP, SOG, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jeff Blashill (CHI)

Last year (EDM, traded): Jeff Blashill CHI · pre-trade → Kris Knoblauch EDM · acquired mid-season (small sample) — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	12.90	12.48	15.27	-18%
5v5 TOI	11.74	11.78	12.62	-7%
PP TOI	0.23	0.16	1.50	-89%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 23 · 17 · 14 · 8

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 12.90: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 11.74: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.23: role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.2 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.35	4.35	6.27	-31%
G/60	0.50	0.57	0.66	-13%
iSH%	11.59	13.10	10.50	+25%
ixG/60	–	0.60	0.85	-30%
iCF/60	–	9.86	12.61	-22%
iSCF/60	–	6.41	8.79	-27%
iHDCF/60	–	3.61	4.31	-16%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 23 · 17 · 14 · 8

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 13.1% vs a 10.5% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.60 (47th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 11.6% pulls the goal rate ~12% down.

RiskShot volume down 31% (5v5 SOG/60 4.35 vs 6.27) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.52	8.70	8.31	+5%
IPP	58.94	56.10	62.42	-10%
1A/60	0.47	0.41	0.66	-38%
2A/60	0.24	0.16	0.34	-53%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 23 · 17 · 14 · 8

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.7%, IPP 56.1%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.23	0.16	1.50	-89%
PP iSH%	4.30	0.00	7.41	-100%
PP SOG/60	7.13	12.24	9.06	+35%
PP ixG/60	–	2.50	1.79	+39%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 23 · 17 · 14 · 8

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.2→0.2 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.2 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (0.0% vs 7.4%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.64	3.45	1.58	+118%
Hits/60	6.05	5.34	4.62	+16%
Blks/60	2.57	2.14	1.54	+39%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 23 · 17 · 14 · 8

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 6.24/60 and 2nd-half 8.05 vs a 5.34 season rate (4.62 3-yr) (64th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 6.05/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 3.75/60 and 2nd-half 3.38 vs a 2.14 season rate (1.54 3-yr) (37th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.57/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindStrong PIM rate (3.45/60 (86th pct league-wide)) — a banger-league asset.