Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2637 GP	H215 GP	H122 GP	Prev 3172 GP · 3y
TOI	10.07	9.56	11.82	8.31	11.83
PP TOI	0.24	0.22	0.38	0.15	0.18
G	8	9	19	4	10
A	8	11	15	10	8
PTS	16	20	34	13	17
PPP	2	2	6	0	0
SOG	113	93	133	74	138
PIM	32	35	32	41	37
Hits	121	82	65	88	161
Blocks	36	24	21	28	44

Sample: 37 GP · 329 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

214Otto Stenberg-34

215Brett Berard-34

216Nikita Grebenkin-34

217Noah Gregor-34

218Andrew Mangiapane-35

219Paul Cotter-35

220Dryden Hunt-35

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 150% above where it started (5.54 in the first half, 15.76 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

iSCF/60

iSCF/60 finished the year 108% above where it started (4.77 in the first half, 9.94 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it up

HITS

all5v5

We’re projecting hits 48% above last season, 82 to 121.

We project it down

all5v5

We’re projecting assists 27% below last season, 11 to 8.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Yakov TreninLW,RW · Minnesota Wild88% match
shared: Hits
Easton CowanC,RW · Toronto Maple Leafs84% match
shared: Hits
Mackie SamoskevichLW,RW · Seattle Kraken83% match
shared: Hits
Kiefer SherwoodLW,RW · San Jose Sharks82% match
shared: Hits

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Noah Gregor is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 4
fills: PPP, SOG, G, A
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 4
fills: SOG, A, PPP, G

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Scott Arniel (WPG)

Last year (FLA, traded): Paul Maurice full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	10.07	9.56	11.83	-19%
5v5 TOI	9.76	8.91	10.77	-17%
PP TOI	0.24	0.22	0.18	+26%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 7 · 15 · 2 · 13

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 10.07: reverts toward the 3-yr 11.8
5v5 TOI → 9.76: same coach (Scott Arniel) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 11.1, Q4 11.1) over the full-year 8.9
PP TOI → 0.24: same coach (Scott Arniel) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.4, Q4 0.4) over the full-year 0.2

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	7.00	6.92	8.74	-21%
G/60	0.57	0.73	0.55	+32%
iSH%	8.09	10.55	6.31	+67%
ixG/60	–	0.63	0.82	-23%
iCF/60	–	15.48	16.26	-5%
iSCF/60	–	6.56	8.16	-20%
iHDCF/60	–	2.73	3.66	-25%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 7 · 15 · 2 · 13

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 10.5% vs a 6.3% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.63 (52nd pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 8.1% pulls the goal rate ~22% down.

RiskShot volume down 21% (5v5 SOG/60 6.92 vs 8.74) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.59→0.83 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.00	8.93	6.27	+42%
IPP	68.41	69.78	64.53	+8%
1A/60	0.46	0.55	0.39	+42%
2A/60	0.05	0.00	0.06	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 7 · 15 · 2 · 13

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 8.9% vs a 6.3% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.24	0.22	0.18	+26%
PP iSH%	26.01	0.00	33.34	-100%
PP SOG/60	8.21	7.27	5.89	+23%
PP ixG/60	–	0.63	1.49	-58%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 7 · 15 · 2 · 13

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.2→0.2 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Scott Arniel) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.4, Q4 0.4) over the full-year 0.2) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.51	2.91	2.24	+30%
Hits/60	7.57	6.56	10.59	-38%
Blks/60	2.01	1.82	2.64	-31%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 7 · 15 · 2 · 13

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 4.14/60 and 2nd-half 4.14 below the 6.56 season rate — projected DOWN to 7.57/60, weighting the recent decline over the 10.59 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.24/60 and 2nd-half 1.24 below the 1.82 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.01/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.64 3-yr mark.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.36/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.