Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2679 GP	H239 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3210 GP · 3y
TOI	11.08	10.68	9.00	11.93	12.89
PP TOI	0.19	0.17	0.05	0.29	0.46
G	10	9	8	10	14
A	7	6	3	9	11
PTS	17	16	11	19	25
PPP	1	1	0	2	2
SOG	72	63	48	78	104
PIM	28	20	13	27	38
Hits	202	199	182	216	252
Blocks	24	23	19	27	30

Sample: 79 GP · 813 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

216Nikita Grebenkin-34

217Noah Gregor-34

218Andrew Mangiapane-35

219Paul Cotter-35

220Dryden Hunt-35

221Zach Aston-Reese-35

222Kevin Hayes-36

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Below his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 57% below his 3-year rate last season (0.15 against 0.35).

Second-half fade

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 13 pace in the second half after 27 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

BLK

all5v5

Blocks ran at a 19 pace in the second half after 27 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

SOG/60

SOG/60 ran 32% below his 3-year rate last season (4.06 against 6.01).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Yakov TreninLW,RW · Minnesota Wild87% match
shared: Hits
Jacob MelansonRW · Seattle Kraken82% match
shared: Hits
Kiefer SherwoodLW,RW · San Jose Sharks82% match
shared: Hits
Martin PospisilC,RW · Calgary Flames80% match
shared: Hits

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Paul Cotter is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 4
fills: PPP, SOG, G, A
Clayton KellerLW · Utah Mammothcovers 4
fills: PPP, A, SOG, G

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Manny Malhotra (VAN) new voice

Last year (NJD, traded): Sheldon Keefe full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	11.08	10.68	12.89	-17%
5v5 TOI	10.25	10.30	12.22	-16%
PP TOI	0.19	0.17	0.46	-63%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 21 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 11.08: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 10.25: role tapered late (Q4 8.8 vs 10.3 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish
PP TOI → 0.19: role tapered late (Q4 0.1 vs 0.2 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.02	4.06	6.01	-32%
G/60	0.45	0.37	0.77	-52%
iSH%	11.29	9.11	12.86	-29%
ixG/60	–	0.57	0.67	-15%
iCF/60	–	9.89	11.72	-16%
iSCF/60	–	5.16	7.34	-30%
iHDCF/60	–	2.88	3.20	-10%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 21 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 9.1% sits near the 12.9% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.57 (44th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 32% (5v5 SOG/60 4.06 vs 6.01) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.52→0.65 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	6.08	5.21	7.50	-31%
IPP	63.84	59.46	69.20	-14%
1A/60	0.22	0.15	0.35	-57%
2A/60	0.18	0.15	0.23	-36%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 21 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 5.2%, IPP 59.5%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.19	0.17	0.46	-63%
PP iSH%	23.23	0.00	40.05	-100%
PP SOG/60	5.04	8.90	3.12	+185%
PP ixG/60	–	2.36	0.67	+253%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 21 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.2→0.2 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.1 vs 0.2 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (0.0% vs 40.1%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.46	1.25	2.20	-43%
Hits/60	14.27	14.02	14.64	-4%
Blks/60	1.66	1.62	1.71	-5%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 21 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindElite hits volume (93rd pct) and role-stable — a bankable hits floor (14.27/60 projected).

ContextBlocks role-stable at 1.62/60 (20th pct league-wide) → 1.66 projected.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.07/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.