Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2627 GP	H26 GP	H121 GP	Prev 3156 GP · 2y
TOI	10.47	9.73	8.78	9.74	12.20
PP TOI	0.05	0.04	–	0.12	0.07
G	6	3	16	-0	8
A	9	12	-0	16	8
PTS	15	15	16	15	16
PPP	0	0	–	0	0
SOG	75	52	36	58	100
PIM	29	36	66	31	27
Hits	179	237	268	213	180
Blocks	47	52	39	57	52

Sample: 27 GP · 243 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

218Andrew Mangiapane-35

219Paul Cotter-35

220Dryden Hunt-35

221Zach Aston-Reese-35

222Kevin Hayes-36

223Max Jones-36

224Jakob Pelletier-36

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 66 pace in the second half after 31 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 61% above his 3-year rate last season (18.76 against 11.65).

Second-half fade

iHDCF/60

iHDCF/60 finished the year 60% below where it started (3.69 in the first half, 1.47 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it down

all5v5

We’re projecting assists 25% below last season, 12 to 9.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Scott LaughtonLW · Los Angeles Kings90% match
shared: Hits, Blocks
Elias PetterssonC · Vancouver Canucks88% match
shared: Blocks, Hits
Lawson CrouseLW,RW · Utah Mammoth87% match
shared: Hits, Blocks
Vasily PodkolzinLW,RW · Edmonton Oilers86% match
shared: Hits, Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Zach Aston-Reese is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 4
fills: PPP, SOG, G, A
Clayton KellerLW · Utah Mammothcovers 4
fills: PPP, A, SOG, G

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Rick Tocchet (PHI)

Last year (CBJ, traded): Dean Evason Q1-Q2 → Rick Bowness Q3-Q4 · hired Jan — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	10.47	9.73	12.20	-20%
5v5 TOI	9.45	9.00	10.93	-18%
PP TOI	0.05	0.04	0.07	-47%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 8 · 5 · 1

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 10.47: reverts toward the 3-yr 12.2
5v5 TOI → 9.45: role tapered late (Q4 8.2 vs 9.0 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish
PP TOI → 0.05: same coach (Rick Tocchet) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.1, Q4 0.1) over the full-year 0.0

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.68	3.95	6.13	-36%
G/60	0.29	0.25	0.56	-55%
iSH%	7.95	6.33	9.13	-31%
ixG/60	–	0.61	0.76	-20%
iCF/60	–	7.40	11.71	-37%
iSCF/60	–	4.69	7.21	-35%
iHDCF/60	–	2.96	4.22	-30%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 8 · 5 · 1

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 6.3% sits near the 9.1% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.61 (48th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 36% (5v5 SOG/60 3.95 vs 6.13) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.68 (1st half) to 0.50 (2nd).

RiskAge 32 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	6.84	6.81	6.90	-1%
IPP	75.72	83.11	60.72	+37%
1A/60	0.57	0.74	0.28	+163%
2A/60	0.27	0.25	0.25	+1%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 8 · 5 · 1

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskIPP spiked to 83.1% vs 60.7% 3-yr — point participation this far above baseline rarely holds; assist share likely gives a little back.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.05	0.04	0.07	-47%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	n/a
PP SOG/60	0.00	0.00	0.00
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	0.00

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 8 · 5 · 1

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.0→0.1 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Rick Tocchet) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.1, Q4 0.1) over the full-year 0.0) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.77	2.96	1.69	+75%
Hits/60	15.31	18.76	11.65	+61%
Blks/60	3.32	3.70	3.09	+20%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 8 · 5 · 1

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 23.47/60 and 2nd-half 23.47 vs a 18.76 season rate (11.65 3-yr) (97th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 15.31/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 2.93/60 and 2nd-half 2.93 below the 3.70 season rate — projected DOWN to 3.32/60, weighting the recent decline over the 3.09 3-yr mark.

TailwindStrong PIM rate (2.96/60 (81st pct league-wide)) — a banger-league asset.