Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

HITS

all5v5

Hits ran at a 125 pace in the second half after 34 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

all5v5

Assists ran at a 21 pace in the second half after 10 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 43% below his 3-year rate last season (0.37 against 0.65).

Above his 3-year rate

ixG/60

ixG/60 ran 23% above his 3-year rate last season (0.97 against 0.79).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Cole PerfettiLW,RW · Winnipeg Jets83% match
Connor McMichaelC,LW · St. Louis Blues81% match
shared: Blocks
Taylor HallLW · Carolina Hurricanes81% match
Easton CowanC,RW · Toronto Maple Leafs80% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Alex Turcotte is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 3
fills: SOG, PPP, A
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 3
fills: PPP, SOG, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Peter Laviolette (LAK) new voice

Last year: Jim Hiller Q1-Q4 · fired Mar → D.J. Smith interim · end Q4 — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	10.90	10.83	11.18	-3%
5v5 TOI	10.35	10.35	10.43	-1%
PP TOI	0.38	0.30	0.68	-56%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 18 · 16 · 7

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 10.90: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 10.35: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.38: reverts toward the 3-yr 0.7

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.08	6.08	5.49	+11%
G/60	0.38	0.28	0.59	-52%
iSH%	6.92	4.61	10.69	-57%
ixG/60	–	0.97	0.79	+23%
iCF/60	–	12.53	10.85	+16%
iSCF/60	–	9.82	7.38	+33%
iHDCF/60	–	5.61	4.18	+34%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 18 · 16 · 7

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 4.6% vs 10.7% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.97 (93rd pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 6.9%, lifting the goal rate ~35%.

TailwindShot volume up 11% (5v5 SOG/60 6.08 vs 5.49) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	7.18	6.49	9.75	-33%
IPP	66.16	66.84	64.14	+4%
1A/60	0.51	0.37	0.65	-43%
2A/60	0.54	0.65	0.52	+24%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 18 · 16 · 7

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 6.5%, IPP 66.8%).

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 12.53 vs 10.85) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 5.61 vs 4.18) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.38	0.30	0.68	-56%
PP iSH%	7.28	0.00	12.54	-100%
PP SOG/60	5.31	6.43	8.02	-20%
PP ixG/60	–	3.37	1.48	+128%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 18 · 16 · 7

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.3→0.4 PP TOI/gp (reverts toward the 3-yr 0.7) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (0.0% vs 12.5%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.39	1.96	1.70	+15%
Hits/60	5.89	4.67	3.40	+37%
Blks/60	3.21	3.18	2.61	+22%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 18 · 16 · 7

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 10.04/60 and 2nd-half 8.51 vs a 4.67 season rate (3.40 3-yr) (56th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 5.89/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 4.56/60 and 2nd-half 3.64 vs a 3.18 season rate (2.61 3-yr) (66th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 3.21/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.09/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.