Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2655 GP	H227 GP	H128 GP	Prev 3108 GP · 2y
TOI	11.10	11.17	10.63	11.57	11.39
PP TOI	0.62	0.64	0.45	0.82	0.76
G	11	9	6	12	14
A	15	15	15	15	15
PTS	26	24	21	26	29
PPP	2	3	6	0	2
SOG	103	94	93	95	123
PIM	11	18	12	23	9
Hits	62	70	106	35	46
Blocks	28	28	21	35	33

Sample: 55 GP · 575 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

217Bo Groulx-50

218Alex Turcotte-50

219Nico Sturm-51

220Jonny Brodzinski-52

221Caleb Desnoyers-54

222Jack Studnicka-54

223Juuso Parssinen-55

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

HITS

all5v5

Hits ran at a 106 pace in the second half after 35 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 73% below where it started (16.33 in the first half, 4.38 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Below his 3-year rate

SOG/60

SOG/60 ran 25% below his 3-year rate last season (5.94 against 7.97).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Cole PerfettiLW,RW · Winnipeg Jets83% match
Jack QuinnRW · Buffalo Sabres82% match
Igor ChernyshovLW · San Jose Sharks78% match
Mackie SamoskevichLW,RW · Seattle Kraken77% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Jonny Brodzinski is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Evgeni MalkinC,LW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 4
fills: A, PIM, PPP, SOG
Mathew BarzalC,RW · New York Islanderscovers 4
fills: A, SOG, PPP, PIM
Gavin McKennaLW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, PIM
Matvei MichkovLW,RW · Philadelphia Flyerscovers 3
fills: PIM, A, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Spencer Carbery (WSH)

Last year (NYR, traded): Mike Sullivan full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	11.10	11.17	11.39	-2%
5v5 TOI	10.32	10.47	10.46	+0%
PP TOI	0.62	0.64	0.76	-15%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 11 · 17 · 12 · 15

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 11.10: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 10.32: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.62: role tapered late (Q4 0.7 vs 0.6 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.76	5.94	7.97	-25%
G/60	0.63	0.63	0.90	-30%
iSH%	10.88	10.61	11.32	-6%
ixG/60	–	0.88	0.70	+27%
iCF/60	–	14.90	14.60	+2%
iSCF/60	–	7.40	7.49	-1%
iHDCF/60	–	3.44	3.13	+10%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 11 · 17 · 12 · 15

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.88 (85th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.70 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

RiskShot volume down 25% (5v5 SOG/60 5.94 vs 7.97) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 1.02 (1st half) to 0.71 (2nd) even though shot volume held — a chance-quality dip, not a volume one.

RiskAge 33 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.37	8.05	8.95	-10%
IPP	77.92	77.66	78.40	-1%
1A/60	0.39	0.42	0.38	+12%
2A/60	0.51	0.42	0.63	-34%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 11 · 17 · 12 · 15

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.1%, IPP 77.7%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.62	0.64	0.76	-15%
PP iSH%	7.22	0.00	12.45	-100%
PP SOG/60	6.16	8.50	5.87	+45%
PP ixG/60	–	1.18	1.14	+4%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 11 · 17 · 12 · 15

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~0.6 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (0.0% vs 12.5%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.90	1.25	0.63	+97%
Hits/60	4.80	4.79	3.08	+55%
Blks/60	1.82	1.98	2.23	-11%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 11 · 17 · 12 · 15

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 5.04/60 and 2nd-half 7.77 vs a 4.79 season rate (3.08 3-yr) (57th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 4.80/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.78/60 and 2nd-half 1.64 below the 1.98 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.82/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.23 3-yr mark.