Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2620 GP	H26 GP	H114 GP	Prev 3137 GP · 3y
TOI	9.80	8.84	–	8.97	13.09
PP TOI	0.00	0.00	–	–	1.27
G	9	8	–	13	12
A	11	4	–	6	20
PTS	20	12	–	19	32
PPP	0	0	–	–	7
SOG	62	66	–	76	80
PIM	24	41	–	13	28
Hits	107	115	–	107	134
Blocks	33	37	–	57	36

Sample: 20 GP · 175 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

220Jonny Brodzinski-52

221Caleb Desnoyers-54

222Jack Studnicka-54

223Juuso Parssinen-55

224Kyle MacLean-55

225Gavin Brindley-55

226David Kampf-56

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

We project it down

PIM

all5v5

We’re projecting penalty minutes 41% below last season, 41 to 24.

Bottom of the league

PP TOI

PP TOI sits in the 1th percentile league-wide (0.00).

Above his 3-year rate

SOG/60

SOG/60 ran 33% above his 3-year rate last season (5.47 against 4.12).

Below his 3-year rate

TOI

TOI ran 32% below his 3-year rate last season (8.84 against 13.09).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Yakov TreninLW,RW · Minnesota Wild87% match
shared: Hits
Jake NeighboursLW,RW · St. Louis Blues85% match
shared: Hits
Scott LaughtonLW · Los Angeles Kings85% match
shared: Hits
Easton CowanC,RW · Toronto Maple Leafs85% match
shared: Hits

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Juuso Parssinen is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 4
fills: PPP, SOG, G, A
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 4
fills: SOG, A, PPP, G

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Mike Sullivan (NYR)

Last year: Mike Sullivan full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	9.80	8.84	13.09	-32%
5v5 TOI	9.39	8.77	11.36	-23%
PP TOI	0.00	0.00	1.27	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 1 · 2 · 4

TOI*

5v5 TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 9.80: reverts toward the 3-yr 13.1
5v5 TOI → 9.39: reverts toward the 3-yr 11.4
PP TOI → 0.00: reverts toward the 3-yr 1.3

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.53	5.47	4.12	+33%
G/60	0.66	0.68	0.46	+47%
iSH%	11.97	12.43	11.22	+11%
ixG/60	–	0.65	0.55	+17%
iCF/60	–	9.58	7.72	+24%
iSCF/60	–	5.47	5.17	+6%
iHDCF/60	–	3.42	3.24	+6%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 1 · 2 · 4

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.65 (56th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.55 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindShot volume up 33% (5v5 SOG/60 5.47 vs 4.12) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	11.04	13.98	8.18	+71%
IPP	49.91	43.10	64.33	-33%
1A/60	0.17	0.00	0.39	-100%
2A/60	0.42	0.34	0.46	-27%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 1 · 2 · 4

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 14.0% vs a 8.2% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 9.58 vs 7.72) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.00	0.00	1.27	-100%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	23.08
PP SOG/60	0.89	0.00	4.47	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	0.83	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 1 · 2 · 4

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.0→0.0 PP TOI/gp (reverts toward the 3-yr 1.3) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.19	3.42	1.78	+92%
Hits/60	8.81	9.58	8.29	+16%
Blks/60	2.98	3.08	2.31	+33%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 1 · 2 · 4

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 9.58/60 (84th pct league-wide) → 8.81 projected.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 4.65/60 and 2nd-half 4.65 vs a 3.08 season rate (2.31 3-yr) (63rd pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.98/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindStrong PIM rate (3.42/60 (86th pct league-wide)) — a banger-league asset.