Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2649 GP	H228 GP	H121 GP	Prev 3199 GP · 3y
TOI	11.58	10.94	10.28	11.40	13.36
PP TOI	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.37
G	9	8	6	11	11
A	9	10	6	15	11
PTS	18	18	12	26	22
PPP	0	0	0	0	0
SOG	77	62	43	88	102
PIM	26	27	41	8	23
Hits	100	92	95	88	115
Blocks	40	32	24	43	51

Sample: 49 GP · 438 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

216Radek Faksa-49

217Bo Groulx-50

218Alex Turcotte-50

219Nico Sturm-51

220Jonny Brodzinski-52

221Caleb Desnoyers-54

222Jack Studnicka-54

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

all5v5

Assists ran at a 6 pace in the second half after 15 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 70% below his 3-year rate last season (0.14 against 0.47).

Second-half fade

all5v5

Goals ran at a 6 pace in the second half after 11 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

PIMs/60

PIMs/60 ran 43% above his 3-year rate last season (2.19 against 1.53).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Emil HeinemanLW,RW · New York Islanders84% match
shared: Hits
Mackie SamoskevichLW,RW · Seattle Kraken82% match
shared: Hits
Yakov TreninLW,RW · Minnesota Wild82% match
shared: Hits
Scott LaughtonLW · Los Angeles Kings80% match
shared: Hits

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Nico Sturm is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 3
fills: SOG, PPP, A
Clayton KellerLW · Utah Mammothcovers 3
fills: PPP, A, SOG
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 3
fills: PPP, SOG, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · John Hynes (MIN)

Last year: John Hynes full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	11.58	10.94	13.36	-18%
5v5 TOI	9.40	8.96	10.83	-17%
PP TOI	0.04	0.03	0.37	-92%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 21 · 20 · 8

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 11.58: reverts toward the 3-yr 13.4
5v5 TOI → 9.40: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.04: same coach (John Hynes) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.0, Q4 0.0) over the full-year 0.0

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.76	3.97	5.96	-33%
G/60	0.39	0.41	0.61	-33%
iSH%	10.29	10.33	10.23	+1%
ixG/60	–	0.63	0.62	+2%
iCF/60	–	8.48	10.71	-21%
iSCF/60	–	5.74	6.07	-5%
iHDCF/60	–	2.87	3.37	-15%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 21 · 20 · 8

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 10.3% sits near the 10.2% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.63 (52nd pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 33% (5v5 SOG/60 3.97 vs 5.96) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.87 (1st half) to 0.47 (2nd).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	6.91	6.31	7.91	-20%
IPP	63.06	64.00	61.90	+3%
1A/60	0.29	0.14	0.47	-70%
2A/60	0.27	0.41	0.22	+86%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 21 · 20 · 8

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 6.3%, IPP 64.0%).

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.41 vs 3-yr 0.22) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.04	0.03	0.37	-92%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	0.00
PP SOG/60	1.24	0.00	4.95	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	0.96	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 21 · 20 · 8

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.0→0.0 PP TOI/gp (same coach (John Hynes) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.0, Q4 0.0) over the full-year 0.0) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.37	2.19	1.53	+43%
Hits/60	7.56	7.38	7.38	+0%
Blks/60	2.46	2.32	2.67	-13%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 21 · 20 · 8

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 9.39/60 and 2nd-half 8.46 vs a 7.38 season rate (7.38 3-yr) (77th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 7.56/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 2.32/60 (43rd pct league-wide) → 2.46 projected.