Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2669 GP	H238 GP	H131 GP	Prev 3153 GP · 3y
TOI	12.33	12.41	12.58	11.87	11.77
PP TOI	0.04	0.02	0.01	0.04	0.19
G	9	10	9	10	8
A	11	10	8	12	14
PTS	20	19	16	22	22
PPP	0	0	0	0	0
SOG	114	112	133	85	102
PIM	47	36	37	34	41
Hits	75	80	63	100	81
Blocks	42	37	46	26	34

Sample: 69 GP · 748 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

178Shane Wright-32

179Sean Kuraly-33

180Oliver Moore-33

181Tyson Jost-33

182Phillip Danault-33

183Joe Veleno-34

184Otto Stenberg-34

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

BLK

all5v5

Blocks ran at a 46 pace in the second half after 26 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 60% below where it started (11.49 in the first half, 4.55 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Below his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 61% below his 3-year rate last season (0.16 against 0.41).

We project it up

PIM

all5v5

We’re projecting penalty minutes 31% above last season, 36 to 47.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Easton CowanC,RW · Toronto Maple Leafs87% match
shared: Hits
Yakov TreninLW,RW · Minnesota Wild83% match
shared: Hits
Erik HaulaC,LW · Los Angeles Kings83% match
shared: Hits
Scott LaughtonLW · Los Angeles Kings82% match
shared: Hits

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Tyson Jost is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 4
fills: SOG, A, PPP, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 4
fills: PPP, SOG, G, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Andrew Brunette (NSH)

Last year: Andrew Brunette full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	12.33	12.41	11.77	+5%
5v5 TOI	11.24	10.85	10.57	+3%
PP TOI	0.04	0.02	0.19	-87%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 16 · 19 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 12.33: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 11.24: same coach (Andrew Brunette) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 11.2, Q4 12.3) over the full-year 10.9
PP TOI → 0.04: role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.0 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	7.26	6.89	6.75	+2%
G/60	0.50	0.48	0.44	+8%
iSH%	6.82	6.97	6.58	+6%
ixG/60	–	0.75	0.73	+3%
iCF/60	–	12.90	11.94	+8%
iSCF/60	–	6.81	7.83	-13%
iHDCF/60	–	3.04	3.49	-13%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 16 · 19 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 7.0% sits near the 6.6% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.75 (68th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.61→0.83 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	6.40	5.75	7.65	-25%
IPP	66.57	68.42	63.85	+7%
1A/60	0.21	0.16	0.41	-61%
2A/60	0.48	0.40	0.52	-23%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 16 · 19 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 5.7%, IPP 68.4%).

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 12.90 vs 11.94) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.04	0.02	0.19	-87%
PP iSH%	0.00	0.00	0.00
PP SOG/60	13.55	35.29	4.04	+774%
PP ixG/60	–	5.28	0.71	+646%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 16 · 19 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.0→0.0 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.0 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 5.28 vs 0.71) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.11	2.24	1.93	+16%
Hits/60	4.72	5.21	5.42	-4%
Blks/60	2.29	2.00	2.22	-10%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 16 · 19 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 3.59/60 and 2nd-half 3.99 below the 5.21 season rate — projected DOWN to 4.72/60, weighting the recent decline over the 5.42 3-yr mark.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 2.57/60 and 2nd-half 2.54 vs a 2.00 season rate (2.22 3-yr) (33rd pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.29/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.