Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H240 GP	H142 GP	Prev 3215 GP · 3y
TOI	13.23	13.33	13.23	13.12	13.43
PP TOI	0.07	0.06	0.10	0.02	0.09
G	8	6	7	5	10
A	13	16	15	17	11
PTS	21	22	23	22	21
PPP	0	0	0	0	0
SOG	103	110	110	110	107
PIM	31	41	14	66	56
Hits	116	87	87	87	193
Blocks	47	47	49	45	48

Sample: 82 GP · 851 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

176Ryan Winterton-32

177Steven Lorentz-32

178Shane Wright-32

179Sean Kuraly-33

180Oliver Moore-33

181Tyson Jost-33

182Phillip Danault-33

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 14 pace in the second half after 66 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 59% above where it started (4.13 in the first half, 6.55 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 51% above his 3-year rate last season (0.70 against 0.46).

Below his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 51% below his 3-year rate last season (5.92 against 12.05).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Scott LaughtonLW · Los Angeles Kings92% match
shared: Hits, Blocks, PIM
Vasily PodkolzinLW,RW · Edmonton Oilers91% match
shared: Hits, Blocks, PIM
Alex SteevesLW · Boston Bruins89% match
shared: Hits, Blocks, PIM
Jake NeighboursLW,RW · St. Louis Blues88% match
shared: Hits, Blocks, PIM

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Sean Kuraly is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 4
fills: SOG, A, PPP, G
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 4
fills: PPP, SOG, G, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Marco Sturm (BOS)

Last year: Marco Sturm full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	13.23	13.33	13.43	-1%
5v5 TOI	10.33	10.38	11.40	-9%
PP TOI	0.07	0.06	0.09	-31%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 20 · 21 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 13.23: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 10.33: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.07: same coach (Marco Sturm) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.1, Q4 0.1) over the full-year 0.1

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.57	6.77	6.30	+8%
G/60	0.44	0.35	0.49	-28%
iSH%	6.65	5.17	7.73	-33%
ixG/60	–	0.63	0.64	-2%
iCF/60	–	12.55	12.32	+2%
iSCF/60	–	5.99	6.10	-2%
iHDCF/60	–	2.75	2.74	+0%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 20 · 21 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 5.2% vs 7.7% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.63 (52nd pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 6.7%, lifting the goal rate ~25%.

RiskAge 33 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	7.84	8.01	7.32	+9%
IPP	62.52	64.38	56.80	+13%
1A/60	0.63	0.70	0.46	+51%
2A/60	0.22	0.35	0.15	+135%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 20 · 21 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.0%, IPP 64.4%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.07	0.06	0.09	-31%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	33.30
PP SOG/60	2.39	0.00	9.58	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	1.41	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 20 · 21 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.1→0.1 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Marco Sturm) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.1, Q4 0.1) over the full-year 0.1) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.92	2.61	3.14	-17%
Hits/60	7.95	5.92	12.05	-51%
Blks/60	2.26	2.19	2.37	-8%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 22 · 20 · 21 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 5.92/60 (68th pct league-wide) → 7.95 projected.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 2.19/60 (38th pct league-wide) → 2.26 projected.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.07/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.