Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2671 GP	H237 GP	H134 GP	Prev 3198 GP · 3y
TOI	11.66	11.87	11.68	11.81	10.73
PP TOI	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.02	0.15
G	8	8	7	10	8
A	11	13	10	16	9
PTS	19	21	17	25	17
PPP	0	0	0	0	0
SOG	85	81	77	85	90
PIM	14	18	11	26	14
Hits	174	179	175	183	166
Blocks	57	55	58	53	52

Sample: 71 GP · 674 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

174Ryan McLeod-31

175Dominic James-31

176Ryan Winterton-32

177Steven Lorentz-32

178Shane Wright-32

179Sean Kuraly-33

180Oliver Moore-33

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

ixG/60

ixG/60 finished the year 43% above where it started (0.53 in the first half, 0.76 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half fade

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 11 pace in the second half after 26 in the first, per 82 games.

Bottom of the league

PP TOI

PP TOI sits in the 4th percentile league-wide (0.01).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Emil HeinemanLW,RW · New York Islanders90% match
shared: Hits, Blocks
Charlie CoyleC,RW · Columbus Blue Jackets79% match
shared: Blocks, Hits
Ivan BarbashevLW · Vegas Golden Knights79% match
shared: Hits
Mackie SamoskevichLW,RW · Seattle Kraken78% match
shared: Hits

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Steven Lorentz is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Clayton KellerLW · Utah Mammothcovers 4
fills: PPP, A, SOG, G
Nikita KucherovRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 5
fills: A, PPP, G, SOG
Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jim Hiller (TOR) new voice

Last year: Craig Berube full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	11.66	11.87	10.73	+11%
5v5 TOI	9.50	9.49	9.37	+1%
PP TOI	0.02	0.01	0.15	-92%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 19 · 22 · 15

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 11.66: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 9.50: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.02: role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.0 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.43	5.43	6.30	-14%
G/60	0.43	0.45	0.49	-8%
iSH%	7.96	8.29	7.72	+7%
ixG/60	–	0.64	0.72	-11%
iCF/60	–	9.70	11.90	-18%
iSCF/60	–	5.34	6.63	-19%
iHDCF/60	–	2.76	3.69	-25%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 19 · 22 · 15

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 8.3% sits near the 7.7% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.64 (54th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 14% (5v5 SOG/60 5.43 vs 6.30) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.53→0.76 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.46	9.46	6.41	+48%
IPP	64.91	62.62	71.89	-13%
1A/60	0.40	0.45	0.26	+73%
2A/60	0.44	0.45	0.42	+7%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 19 · 22 · 15

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 9.5% vs a 6.4% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.02	0.01	0.15	-92%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	25.00
PP SOG/60	2.00	0.00	8.00	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	1.46	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 19 · 22 · 15

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.0→0.0 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.0 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.99	1.25	1.00	+24%
Hits/60	13.15	13.44	12.71	+6%
Blks/60	3.66	3.56	3.64	-2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 19 · 22 · 15

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindElite hits volume (92nd pct) and role-stable — a bankable hits floor (13.15/60 projected).

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 4.54/60 and 2nd-half 3.89 vs a 3.56 season rate (3.64 3-yr) (72nd pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 3.66/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.