Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2681 GP	H241 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3217 GP · 3y
TOI	17.30	17.61	16.33	16.82	15.17
PP TOI	0.70	1.59	1.54	1.64	0.63
G	17	14	13	15	16
A	32	40	50	31	24
PTS	49	55	63	46	40
PPP	2	7	8	6	1
SOG	95	91	77	105	107
PIM	21	16	28	4	17
Hits	21	16	14	18	46
Blocks	34	34	36	33	32

Sample: 81 GP · 1,016 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

171Adam Henrique-30

172Casey Cizikas-30

173Samuel Helenius-31

174Ryan McLeod-31

175Dominic James-31

176Ryan Winterton-32

177Steven Lorentz-32

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): PP TOI 1.59 -> 0.70, landing ~49 points against outside reads of 46.0 and 50.8. Also carries finishing risk the trim does not price in: his 12.7% 5v5 shooting was the highest on the team. Trimmed through minutes rather than a points multiplier because the PP role is the specific thing expected to change.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 143% above where it started (0.59 in the first half, 1.43 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it down

PP TOI

We’re projecting PP TOI 56% below last season, 1.59 to 0.70.

Second-half surge

all5v5

Assists ran at a 50 pace in the second half after 31 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 69% below his 3-year rate last season (0.83 against 2.70).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Igor ChernyshovLW · San Jose Sharks82% match
Cole PerfettiLW,RW · Winnipeg Jets81% match
Jack QuinnRW · Buffalo Sabres81% match
Marco RossiC · Vancouver Canucks78% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Ryan McLeod is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Liam O'BrienLW · Utah Mammothcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Lindy Ruff (BUF)

Last year: Lindy Ruff full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	17.30	17.61	15.17	+16%
5v5 TOI	12.32	12.55	12.19	+3%
PP TOI	0.70	1.59	0.63	+153%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 24 · 17

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 17.30: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 12.32: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.70: Power-play time trimmed from 1.59. He drew a career-high PP share in 2025-26 and both outside reads expect it to go away with Kulich returning and Helenius arriving — the second-unit minutes he inherited were a vacancy, not a promotion. 0.70 sits near his 0.49-0.54 level from the two seasons before that spike.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.42	3.60	5.26	-32%
G/60	0.44	0.41	0.73	-44%
iSH%	12.79	11.39	13.81	-18%
ixG/60	–	0.38	0.64	-40%
iCF/60	–	7.85	10.21	-23%
iSCF/60	–	3.95	6.22	-36%
iHDCF/60	–	1.59	2.95	-46%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 24 · 17

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 11.4% sits near the 13.8% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.38 (35th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 32% (5v5 SOG/60 3.60 vs 5.26) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	11.22	12.61	9.12	+38%
IPP	58.71	54.92	69.96	-22%
1A/60	0.95	1.06	0.79	+34%
2A/60	0.51	0.53	0.38	+38%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 24 · 17

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 12.6% vs a 9.1% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.70	1.59	0.63	+153%
PP iSH%	0.00	0.00	0.00
PP SOG/60	4.23	4.66	5.28	-12%
PP ixG/60	–	0.67	0.89	-25%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 24 · 17

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 1.6→0.7 PP TOI/gp (Power-play time trimmed from 1.59. He drew a career-high PP share in 2025-26 and both outside reads expect it to go away with Kulich returning and Helenius arriving — the second-unit minutes he inherited were a vacancy, not a promotion. 0.70 sits near his 0.49-0.54 level from the two seasons before that spike.) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.96	0.71	0.91	-22%
Hits/60	1.12	0.83	2.70	-69%
Blks/60	1.52	1.53	1.50	+2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 24 · 17

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 0.29/60 and 2nd-half 0.64 below the 0.83 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.12/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.70 3-yr mark.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 1.53/60 (17th pct league-wide) → 1.52 projected.