Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2665 GP	H223 GP	H142 GP	Prev 3225 GP · 3y
TOI	13.31	13.24	11.67	13.78	16.42
PP TOI	0.64	0.62	0.24	0.82	1.71
G	10	4	5	3	21
A	15	15	13	16	21
PTS	25	19	18	20	42
PPP	3	4	0	6	9
SOG	107	115	96	125	137
PIM	27	23	29	19	27
Hits	45	43	37	46	67
Blocks	73	95	72	107	74

Sample: 65 GP · 699 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

168Blake Lizotte-30

169Justin Kirkland-30

170Ryan Greene-30

171Adam Henrique-30

172Casey Cizikas-30

173Samuel Helenius-31

174Ryan McLeod-31

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Below his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 64% below his 3-year rate last season (0.62 against 1.71).

Below his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 81% below his 3-year rate last season (2.64 against 14.21).

Second-half fade

BLK

all5v5

Blocks ran at a 72 pace in the second half after 107 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

SOG

all5v5

Shots ran at a 96 pace in the second half after 125 in the first, per 82 games.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Matty BeniersC · Seattle Kraken87% match
shared: Blocks
Morgan FrostC · Calgary Flames84% match
shared: Blocks
Charlie CoyleC,RW · Columbus Blue Jackets83% match
shared: Blocks
Cole PerfettiLW,RW · Winnipeg Jets79% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Adam Henrique is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Mathew BarzalC,RW · New York Islanderscovers 4
fills: A, SOG, PPP, PIM
Evgeni MalkinC,LW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 4
fills: A, PIM, PPP, SOG
Gavin McKennaLW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, PIM
Mats ZuccarelloRW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 3
fills: PPP, A, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Mike Babcock (EDM) new voice

Last year: Kris Knoblauch full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	13.31	13.24	16.42	-19%
5v5 TOI	10.56	10.76	12.10	-11%
PP TOI	0.64	0.62	1.71	-64%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 23 · 19 · 6 · 17

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 13.31: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 10.56: role tapered late (Q4 10.3 vs 10.8 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish
PP TOI → 0.64: role tapered late (Q4 0.3 vs 0.6 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.24	6.43	6.04	+6%
G/60	0.22	0.17	0.86	-80%
iSH%	7.04	2.64	14.21	-81%
ixG/60	–	0.78	0.72	+8%
iCF/60	–	11.92	10.98	+9%
iSCF/60	–	6.95	6.63	+5%
iHDCF/60	–	3.60	3.73	-3%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 23 · 19 · 6 · 17

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 2.6% vs 14.2% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.78 (73rd pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 7.0%, lifting the goal rate ~31%.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.77→0.93 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

RiskAge 36 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	6.62	6.05	9.36	-35%
IPP	57.87	56.20	64.43	-13%
1A/60	0.49	0.60	0.37	+61%
2A/60	0.21	0.00	0.37	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 23 · 19 · 6 · 17

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 6.1%, IPP 56.2%).

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 11.92 vs 10.98) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.64	0.62	1.71	-64%
PP iSH%	10.11	0.00	17.44	-100%
PP SOG/60	11.45	11.99	9.82	+22%
PP ixG/60	–	2.78	1.96	+42%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 23 · 19 · 6 · 17

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~0.6 PP TOI/gp.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (0.0% vs 17.4%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.28	1.03	1.28	-19%
Hits/60	2.95	2.83	3.73	-24%
Blks/60	4.64	5.66	3.15	+80%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 23 · 19 · 6 · 17

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 3.09/60 and 2nd-half 2.15 below the 2.83 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.95/60, weighting the recent decline over the 3.73 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 4.47/60 and 2nd-half 4.62 below the 5.66 season rate — projected DOWN to 4.64/60, weighting the recent decline over the 3.15 3-yr mark.