Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2643 GP	H217 GP	H126 GP	Prev 3thin
TOI	12.41	12.24	12.20	11.73	–
PP TOI	0.57	0.69	0.26	0.97	–
G	15	13	19	9	–
A	16	15	14	16	–
PTS	31	29	34	25	–
PPP	0	0	0	0	–
SOG	121	107	142	84	–
PIM	18	15	23	10	–
Hits	114	111	106	113	–
Blocks	21	25	11	33	–

Sample: 43 GP · 479 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

172Casey Cizikas-30

173Samuel Helenius-31

174Ryan McLeod-31

175Dominic James-31

176Ryan Winterton-32

177Steven Lorentz-32

178Shane Wright-32

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

all5v5

Goals ran at a 19 pace in the second half after 9 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

BLK

all5v5

Blocks ran at a 11 pace in the second half after 33 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it up

SOG

all5v5

We’re projecting shots 13% above last season, 107 to 121.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Mackie SamoskevichLW,RW · Seattle Kraken79% match
shared: Hits
Jack QuinnRW · Buffalo Sabres77% match
Ivan BarbashevLW · Vegas Golden Knights77% match
shared: Hits
Cole PerfettiLW,RW · Winnipeg Jets76% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Dominic James is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Evgeni MalkinC,LW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 4
fills: A, PIM, PPP, SOG
Clayton KellerLW · Utah Mammothcovers 3
fills: PPP, A, SOG
Nikita KucherovRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, PIM
Gavin McKennaLW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jon Cooper (TBL)

Last year: Jon Cooper full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
TOI	12.41	12.24	n/a
5v5 TOI	11.53	11.15	n/a
PP TOI	0.57	0.69	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 11 · 15 · 17 · 0

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 12.41: one NHL season — role grown +1% toward a sophomore workload
5v5 TOI → 11.53: same coach (Jon Cooper) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 11.9, Q4 11.9) over the full-year 11.2; one NHL season — role grown +1% toward a sophomore workload
PP TOI → 0.57: role tapered late (Q4 0.3 vs 0.7 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
SOG/60	7.13	6.63	n/a
G/60	0.95	0.88	n/a
iSH%	13.27	13.27	n/a
ixG/60	–	0.71	n/a
iCF/60	–	13.01	n/a
iSCF/60	–	6.26	n/a
iHDCF/60	–	2.88	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 11 · 15 · 17 · 0

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.67→0.81 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

TailwindAge 24 on a single NHL season — projected a development step, not a flat repeat: scoring rates +2% and role +1% toward the mid-20s peak (a young riser improves on last year, not repeats it).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
on-ice SH%	9.66	9.66	n/a
IPP	78.99	78.99	n/a
1A/60	0.88	0.88	n/a
2A/60	0.13	0.13	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 11 · 15 · 17 · 0

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 9.7%, IPP 79.0%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PP TOI	0.57	0.69	n/a
PP iSH%	0.00	0.00	n/a
PP SOG/60	5.29	4.02	n/a
PP ixG/60	–	1.54	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 11 · 15 · 17 · 0

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 0.7→0.6 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.3 vs 0.7 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PIMs/60	0.88	0.75	n/a
Hits/60	7.26	7.26	n/a
Blks/60	1.24	1.50	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 11 · 15 · 17 · 0

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 7.26/60 (76th pct league-wide) → 7.26 projected.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.59/60 and 2nd-half 0.59 below the 1.50 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.24/60, weighting the recent decline over the n/a 3-yr mark.