Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2674 GP	H235 GP	H139 GP	Prev 379 GP · 1y
TOI	13.80	13.80	13.28	13.37	14.07
PP TOI	1.54	1.60	1.60	1.61	1.93
G	▼13	13	16	11	20
A	▼18	17	15	18	26
PTS	▼31	30	31	29	46
PPP	6	7	7	6	14
SOG	89	108	96	118	94
PIM	15	11	14	9	19
Hits	47	57	45	67	56
Blocks	64	65	67	64	64

Sample: 74 GP · 866 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

175Dominic James-31

176Ryan Winterton-32

177Steven Lorentz-32

178Shane Wright-32

179Sean Kuraly-33

180Oliver Moore-33

181Tyson Jost-33

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Muted while in Seattle; upside only on a trade to a top-six role.

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

TailwindModest 5v5 lift for Seattle's young forwards; cleaner PP structure. · Coaching landscape report

RiskKeep a muted line while he is in Seattle's suppressive system; upside only on a trade to a top-six role. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 67% above where it started (7.98 in the first half, 13.36 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

all5v5

Goals ran at a 16 pace in the second half after 11 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

PP SOG/60

PP SOG/60 ran 30% below his 3-year rate last season (6.07 against 8.68).

We project it down

PPP

We’re projecting power play points 14% below last season, 7 to 6.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Matty BeniersC · Seattle Kraken89% match
shared: Blocks
Morgan FrostC · Calgary Flames82% match
shared: Blocks
Matvei GridinRW · Calgary Flames82% match
shared: Blocks
Charlie CoyleC,RW · Columbus Blue Jackets82% match
shared: Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Shane Wright is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Evgeni MalkinC,LW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 3
fills: A, PIM, SOG
Matvei MichkovLW,RW · Philadelphia Flyerscovers 3
fills: PIM, A, SOG
Mathew BarzalC,RW · New York Islanderscovers 3
fills: A, SOG, PIM
Frank VatranoLW · Anaheim Duckscovers 2
fills: PIM, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Lane Lambert (SEA)

Last year: Lane Lambert full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	13.80	13.80	14.07	-2%
5v5 TOI	11.46	11.70	11.60	+1%
PP TOI	1.54	1.60	1.93	-17%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 23 · 12

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 13.80: holds last year's role; age 22 riser — small growth bias; Keep a muted line while he is in Seattle's suppressive system; upside only on a trade to a top-six role.
5v5 TOI → 11.46: holds last year's role; age 22 riser — small growth bias; Keep a muted line while he is in Seattle's suppressive system; upside only on a trade to a top-six role.
PP TOI → 1.54: role tapered late (Q4 1.3 vs 1.6 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish; age 22 riser — small growth bias

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.49	5.33	4.19	+27%
G/60	0.74	0.55	0.79	-30%
iSH%	13.56	10.32	18.85	-45%
ixG/60	–	0.76	0.65	+17%
iCF/60	–	10.25	9.23	+11%
iSCF/60	–	6.93	5.96	+16%
iHDCF/60	–	3.60	3.40	+6%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 23 · 12

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 10.3% vs 18.9% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.76 (70th pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 13.6%, lifting the goal rate ~35%.

TailwindShot volume up 27% (5v5 SOG/60 5.33 vs 4.19) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

TailwindAge 22 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.38	8.23	11.84	-31%
IPP	61.29	60.10	63.24	-5%
1A/60	0.61	0.48	0.79	-39%
2A/60	0.37	0.21	0.46	-54%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 23 · 12

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.2%, IPP 60.1%).

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 10.25 vs 9.23) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.54	1.60	1.93	-17%
PP iSH%	28.46	16.64	31.80	-48%
PP SOG/60	3.17	6.07	8.68	-30%
PP ixG/60	–	1.92	2.14	-10%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 23 · 12

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~1.5 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.85	0.69	0.92	-25%
Hits/60	3.00	3.53	3.40	+4%
Blks/60	3.97	3.95	3.99	-1%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 23 · 12

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 1.81/60 and 2nd-half 2.54 below the 3.53 season rate — projected DOWN to 3.00/60, weighting the recent decline over the 3.40 3-yr mark.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 3.95/60 (81st pct league-wide) → 3.97 projected.