Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2675 GP	H240 GP	H135 GP	Prev 3240 GP · 3y
TOI	15.59	15.57	13.53	16.41	18.01
PP TOI	0.48	0.62	0.08	1.24	1.77
G	8	7	10	2	15
A	20	12	14	10	35
PTS	28	19	24	12	49
PPP	2	0	0	0	10
SOG	99	100	86	115	149
PIM	31	29	37	18	37
Hits	66	69	68	70	83
Blocks	52	44	51	36	70

Sample: 75 GP · 919 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

179Sean Kuraly-33

180Oliver Moore-33

181Tyson Jost-33

182Phillip Danault-33

183Joe Veleno-34

184Otto Stenberg-34

185Nick Bjugstad-35

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

We project it up

all5v5

We’re projecting assists 67% above last season, 12 to 20.

Below his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 65% below his 3-year rate last season (0.62 against 1.77).

Below his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 59% below his 3-year rate last season (0.33 against 0.81).

Second-half surge

BLK

all5v5

Blocks ran at a 51 pace in the second half after 36 in the first, per 82 games.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Scott LaughtonLW · Los Angeles Kings86% match
shared: Blocks
Charlie CoyleC,RW · Columbus Blue Jackets86% match
shared: Blocks
Morgan FrostC · Calgary Flames86% match
shared: Blocks
Jake NeighboursLW,RW · St. Louis Blues83% match
shared: Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Phillip Danault is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 3
fills: SOG, PPP, A
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Clayton KellerLW · Utah Mammothcovers 3
fills: PPP, A, SOG
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 3
fills: PPP, SOG, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Martin St. Louis (MTL)

Last year (MTL, traded): D.J. Smith LAK · pre-trade → Martin St. Louis MTL · acquired mid-season (small sample) — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	15.59	15.57	18.01	-14%
5v5 TOI	11.90	12.26	13.57	-10%
PP TOI	0.48	0.62	1.77	-65%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 14 · 21 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 15.59: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 11.90: role tapered late (Q4 11.2 vs 12.3 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish
PP TOI → 0.48: role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.6 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.87	5.02	6.43	-22%
G/60	0.34	0.26	0.61	-57%
iSH%	7.67	5.18	9.47	-45%
ixG/60	–	0.53	0.71	-26%
iCF/60	–	9.59	11.38	-16%
iSCF/60	–	5.68	7.22	-21%
iHDCF/60	–	2.94	3.59	-18%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 14 · 21 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 5.2% sits near the 9.5% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.53 (40th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 22% (5v5 SOG/60 5.02 vs 6.43) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

RiskAge 33 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	7.50	7.23	7.84	-8%
IPP	48.59	36.93	67.60	-45%
1A/60	0.60	0.33	0.81	-59%
2A/60	0.26	0.07	0.35	-80%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 14 · 21 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindIPP 36.9% sits below the 67.6% 3-yr mark — participation should rebound, nudging assists up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.48	0.62	1.77	-65%
PP iSH%	9.44	0.00	16.27	-100%
PP SOG/60	3.65	6.46	6.06	+7%
PP ixG/60	–	1.46	0.87	+68%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 14 · 21 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 0.6→0.5 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.6 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (0.0% vs 16.3%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.60	1.44	1.42	+1%
Hits/60	3.80	3.85	4.11	-6%
Blks/60	2.28	1.89	2.87	-34%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 14 · 21 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 4.80/60 and 2nd-half 4.11 vs a 3.85 season rate (4.11 3-yr) (48th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 3.80/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 1.98/60 and 2nd-half 2.46 vs a 1.89 season rate (2.87 3-yr) (29th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.28/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.