Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2661 GP	H236 GP	H125 GP	Prev 3220 GP · 3y
TOI	11.12	10.94	10.55	11.17	15.47
PP TOI	0.11	0.07	0.08	0.07	0.98
G	10	8	4	14	18
A	9	4	5	3	17
PTS	19	12	8	18	35
PPP	0	0	0	0	3
SOG	104	103	87	127	159
PIM	33	44	46	42	41
Hits	119	145	128	171	145
Blocks	38	44	38	54	43

Sample: 61 GP · 610 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

182Phillip Danault-33

183Joe Veleno-34

184Otto Stenberg-34

185Nick Bjugstad-35

186Kevin Hayes-36

187Vitali Pinchuk-36

188Josh Dunne-36

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

all5v5

Goals ran at a 4 pace in the second half after 14 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 68% below where it started (7.12 in the first half, 2.25 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Below his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 60% below his 3-year rate last season (0.20 against 0.50).

Above his 3-year rate

PIMs/60

PIMs/60 ran 77% above his 3-year rate last season (3.05 against 1.72).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Scott LaughtonLW · Los Angeles Kings91% match
shared: Hits, Blocks
Jake NeighboursLW,RW · St. Louis Blues89% match
shared: Hits, Blocks
Lawson CrouseLW,RW · Utah Mammoth89% match
shared: Hits, Blocks
Vasily PodkolzinLW,RW · Edmonton Oilers89% match
shared: Hits, Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Nick Bjugstad is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 3
fills: SOG, PPP, A
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 3
fills: PPP, SOG, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Sheldon Keefe (NJD)

Last year (STL, traded): Sheldon Keefe NJD · pre-trade → Jim Montgomery STL · acquired mid-season (small sample) — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	11.12	10.94	15.47	-29%
5v5 TOI	9.99	10.01	12.50	-20%
PP TOI	0.11	0.07	0.98	-92%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 7 · 18 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 11.12: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 9.99: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.11: role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.35	6.68	7.63	-12%
G/60	0.60	0.49	0.83	-41%
iSH%	9.37	7.34	10.84	-32%
ixG/60	–	0.69	0.80	-13%
iCF/60	–	12.28	13.74	-11%
iSCF/60	–	6.88	7.68	-10%
iHDCF/60	–	3.14	3.49	-10%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 7 · 18 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 7.3% sits near the 10.8% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.69 (60th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 12% (5v5 SOG/60 6.68 vs 7.63) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.78 (1st half) to 0.54 (2nd).

RiskAge 34 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	7.93	6.98	9.49	-27%
IPP	54.48	50.32	61.27	-18%
1A/60	0.36	0.20	0.50	-60%
2A/60	0.23	0.10	0.33	-70%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 7 · 18 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindIPP 50.3% sits below the 61.3% 3-yr mark — participation should rebound, nudging assists up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.11	0.07	0.98	-92%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	11.15
PP SOG/60	2.51	0.00	10.03	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	1.15	2.14	-46%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 7 · 18 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.1→0.1 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.0 vs 0.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.38	3.05	1.72	+77%
Hits/60	8.99	10.61	7.90	+34%
Blks/60	2.45	2.65	2.14	+24%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 7 · 18 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 7.84/60 and 2nd-half 9.58 below the 10.61 season rate — projected DOWN to 8.99/60, weighting the recent decline over the 7.90 3-yr mark.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 2.65/60 (53rd pct league-wide) → 2.45 projected.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.10/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.