Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2669 GP	H232 GP	H137 GP	Prev 3212 GP · 3y
TOI	16.89	16.73	17.10	15.01	17.33
PP TOI	1.03	0.73	0.90	0.58	1.69
G	20	16	19	13	23
A	▼22	23	29	17	26
PTS	▼42	38	48	29	49
PPP	3	1	3	0	7
SOG	199	189	231	153	217
PIM	14	10	8	11	22
Hits	▼72	68	91	48	86
Blocks	41	44	36	51	46

Sample: 69 GP · 935 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

109Colton Dach4

110Ivar Stenberg4

111Tye Kartye4

112Trevor Moore4

113Ross Colton3

114Fraser Minten2

115Vladimir Tarasenko1

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): The engine rides Moore's second half: a projected 13.72 5v5 TOI against a 4-season band of 13.07 to 13.61, built on a 14.92 fourth quarter and a 2.41 points per 60 finish against 1.73 for the full season. Fiala's leg fracture moved Moore up alongside Byfield and Laferriere, and the production followed the promotion. Fiala's healthy now, Zuccarello was added, and the projected depth chart puts Moore back on the third line, so that second-half rate is inflated. Assists faded 12%, landing near 42 points, between our rate model and the more conservative external projection. Shots left as projected. Hits trimmed to 72. His per-82 hits ran 84, 91, 83 and 69 across 2022-26, and the engine projects 82, nearer the multi-year average than the recent mark. 72 leans toward last season's 69 while keeping some of the earlier level.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

HITS

all5v5

Hits ran at a 91 pace in the second half after 48 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

all5v5

Assists ran at a 29 pace in the second half after 17 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 57% below his 3-year rate last season (0.73 against 1.69).

Below his 3-year rate

PIMs/60

PIMs/60 ran 57% below his 3-year rate last season (0.38 against 0.89).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Alex LaferriereC,LW,RW · Los Angeles Kings85% match
shared: SOG
Cole PerfettiLW,RW · Winnipeg Jets84% match
Kyle PalmieriRW · New York Islanders82% match
shared: SOG
Mackie SamoskevichLW,RW · Seattle Kraken82% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Trevor Moore is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Ivan DemidovRW · Montreal Canadienscovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Pierre-Luc DuboisC · Washington Capitalscovers 2
fills: PIM, A
Evgeni MalkinC,LW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 3
fills: A, PIM, PPP
Jamie BennLW · Dallas Starscovers 2
fills: PIM, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Peter Laviolette (LAK) new voice

Last year: Jim Hiller Q1-Q4 · fired Mar → D.J. Smith interim · end Q4 — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	16.89	16.73	17.33	-3%
5v5 TOI	13.72	13.56	13.31	+2%
PP TOI	1.03	0.73	1.69	-57%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 17 · 12 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 16.89: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.72: new coach (Peter Laviolette) — late-year 14.6 role discounted until the new staff sets usage
PP TOI → 1.03: new coach (Peter Laviolette) — late-year 0.9 role discounted until the new staff sets usage

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	8.32	8.14	9.21	-12%
G/60	0.73	0.64	0.87	-26%
iSH%	8.79	7.86	9.45	-17%
ixG/60	–	0.79	0.91	-13%
iCF/60	–	15.78	16.90	-7%
iSCF/60	–	6.99	8.04	-13%
iHDCF/60	–	3.66	3.78	-3%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 17 · 12 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 7.9% sits near the 9.5% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.79 (74th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 12% (5v5 SOG/60 8.14 vs 9.21) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.12	8.19	8.04	+2%
IPP	73.47	74.89	71.57	+5%
1A/60	0.55	0.58	0.55	+5%
2A/60	0.58	0.51	0.51	+0%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 17 · 12 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.2%, IPP 74.9%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.03	0.73	1.69	-57%
PP iSH%	5.91	0.00	7.57	-100%
PP SOG/60	9.29	9.57	11.06	-14%
PP ixG/60	–	0.95	2.25	-58%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 17 · 12 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.7→1.0 PP TOI/gp (new coach (Peter Laviolette) — late-year 0.9 role discounted until the new staff sets usage) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.44	0.38	0.89	-57%
Hits/60	3.90	3.33	4.51	-26%
Blks/60	1.90	2.05	1.96	+5%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 17 · 12 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 4.22/60 and 2nd-half 4.10 vs a 3.33 season rate (4.51 3-yr) (42nd pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 3.90/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.81/60 and 2nd-half 1.45 below the 2.05 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.90/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.96 3-yr mark.