Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2675 GP	H239 GP	H136 GP	Prev 3225 GP · 3y
TOI	14.84	14.94	14.09	14.74	15.72
PP TOI	1.99	2.32	1.70	2.99	2.08
G	20	25	32	18	19
A	26	26	27	26	31
PTS	46	51	58	44	50
PPP	11	14	13	16	11
SOG	155	162	173	150	167
PIM	9	11	9	14	9
Hits	66	66	65	66	81
Blocks	36	36	38	34	39

Sample: 75 GP · 905 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

112Trevor Moore4

113Ross Colton3

114Fraser Minten2

115Vladimir Tarasenko1

116Michael Eyssimont1

117Marco Kasper1

118Brett Howden1

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

all5v5

Goals ran at a 32 pace in the second half after 18 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 finished the year 73% above where it started (1.43 in the first half, 2.47 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it down

PPP

We’re projecting power play points 21% below last season, 14 to 11.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Cole PerfettiLW,RW · Winnipeg Jets93% match
Igor ChernyshovLW · San Jose Sharks87% match
Morgan GeekieC,LW,RW · Boston Bruins85% match
Morgan FrostC · Calgary Flames85% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Vladimir Tarasenko is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Matvei MichkovLW,RW · Philadelphia Flyerscovers 2
fills: PIM, A
Pierre-Luc DuboisC · Washington Capitalscovers 2
fills: PIM, A
Evgeni MalkinC,LW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 2
fills: A, PIM
Trevor ZegrasC,LW · Philadelphia Flyerscovers 2
fills: PIM, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · John Hynes (MIN)

Last year: John Hynes full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	14.84	14.94	15.72	-5%
5v5 TOI	12.19	12.07	12.94	-7%
PP TOI	1.99	2.32	2.08	+12%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 18 · 21 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 14.84: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 12.19: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 1.99: role tapered late (Q4 1.6 vs 2.3 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.62	6.82	6.40	+6%
G/60	0.95	1.06	0.79	+35%
iSH%	14.30	15.54	12.28	+27%
ixG/60	–	0.76	0.67	+14%
iCF/60	–	12.85	12.83	+0%
iSCF/60	–	7.16	7.48	-4%
iHDCF/60	–	3.11	2.93	+6%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 18 · 21 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.76 (70th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.67 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

RiskAge 34 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.44	8.91	10.18	-12%
IPP	73.51	82.76	66.32	+25%
1A/60	0.61	0.60	0.66	-9%
2A/60	0.33	0.27	0.45	-40%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 18 · 21 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskIPP spiked to 82.8% vs 66.3% 3-yr — point participation this far above baseline rarely holds; assist share likely gives a little back.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.99	2.32	2.08	+12%
PP iSH%	8.93	12.79	6.14	+108%
PP SOG/60	14.45	13.45	14.65	-8%
PP ixG/60	–	1.84	1.75	+5%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 18 · 21 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 2.3→2.0 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 1.6 vs 2.3 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

RiskPP finishing ran hot (12.8% vs 6.1% 3-yr) with flat PP chances (PP ixG/60 1.84) — expect PP goals to cool.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.55	0.66	0.54	+23%
Hits/60	3.95	3.98	4.43	-10%
Blks/60	2.10	2.12	2.08	+2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 18 · 18 · 21 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 3.98/60 (49th pct league-wide) → 3.95 projected.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 2.12/60 (36th pct league-wide) → 2.10 projected.