Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H243 GP	H139 GP	Prev 3235 GP · 3y
TOI	11.58	11.54	11.89	10.92	11.87
PP TOI	0.07	0.07	0.06	0.08	0.03
G	9	6	10	2	10
A	13	11	9	14	13
PTS	22	17	18	16	23
PPP	0	0	0	0	0
SOG	71	67	64	70	78
PIM	50	55	38	74	59
Hits	269	270	287	251	277
Blocks	41	43	32	56	41

Sample: 82 GP · 883 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingRight wing · league-wide (of 273)

130Gabe Perreault0

131Matt Rempe0

132Arseny Gritsyuk-1

133Keegan Kolesar-1

134Carl Grundstrom-2

135Kent Johnson-2

136Conor Garland-2

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

ixG/60

ixG/60 finished the year 79% above where it started (0.35 in the first half, 0.64 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half fade

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 52% below where it started (0.75 in the first half, 0.36 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Top of the league

Hits/60

Hits/60 sits in the 97th percentile league-wide (18.27).

Below his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 23% below his 3-year rate last season (9.15 against 11.84).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Dakota JoshuaLW · Toronto Maple Leafs95% match
shared: Hits, PIM, Blocks
Alex SteevesLW · Boston Bruins94% match
shared: Hits, PIM, Blocks
Zachary L'HeureuxLW,RW · Colorado Avalanche94% match
shared: Hits, PIM
Vasily PodkolzinLW,RW · Edmonton Oilers93% match
shared: Hits, PIM, Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Keegan Kolesar is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 4
fills: SOG, A, PPP, G
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 4
fills: PPP, SOG, G, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Todd McLellan (DET)

Last year (VGK, traded): Bruce Cassidy Q1-Q4 · fired Mar 29 → John Tortorella final 8 games · Q4 — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	11.58	11.54	11.87	-3%
5v5 TOI	10.87	10.78	11.44	-6%
PP TOI	0.07	0.07	0.03	+182%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 25 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 11.58: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 10.87: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.07: reverts toward the 3-yr 0.0

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.39	4.48	4.89	-8%
G/60	0.47	0.41	0.58	-29%
iSH%	10.71	9.15	11.84	-23%
ixG/60	–	0.51	0.55	-8%
iCF/60	–	9.30	9.19	+1%
iSCF/60	–	5.02	5.67	-11%
iHDCF/60	–	2.85	3.08	-7%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 25 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 9.2% sits near the 11.8% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.51 (39th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.35→0.64 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	7.03	6.49	7.99	-19%
IPP	67.71	69.87	64.84	+8%
1A/60	0.51	0.54	0.52	+5%
2A/60	0.29	0.14	0.27	-48%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 25 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 6.5%, IPP 69.9%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.07	0.07	0.03	+182%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	0.00
PP SOG/60	0.00	0.00	9.84	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	0.83	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 25 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 0.1→0.1 PP TOI/gp (reverts toward the 3-yr 0.0) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	3.25	3.73	3.75	-0%
Hits/60	18.00	18.27	17.59	+4%
Blks/60	2.70	2.85	2.48	+15%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 25 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindElite hits volume (97th pct) and role-stable — a bankable hits floor (18.00/60 projected).

ContextBlocks role-stable at 2.85/60 (58th pct league-wide) → 2.70 projected.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.34/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.