Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2676 GP	H237 GP	H139 GP	Prev 3189 GP · 3y
TOI	15.50	13.24	12.96	12.72	15.30
PP TOI	2.20	1.64	1.71	1.58	2.14
G	▲17	8	10	5	20
A	▲28	16	16	16	29
PTS	▲45	24	26	21	49
PPP	▲11	2	4	0	12
SOG	▲147	122	127	117	135
PIM	31	22	27	17	17
Hits	20	16	20	13	12
Blocks	36	41	44	38	31

Sample: 76 GP · 847 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

126Arseny Gritsyuk-1

127Nicolas Deslauriers-1

128Carl Grundstrom-2

129Kent Johnson-2

130Aliaksei Protas-2

131Parker Kelly-3

132Ryan Donato-3

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Bounce-back bet (bullish, hedged short of the career year). RESHAPED 2026-07-27 (CBJ pass): the total was fine, the split was wrong - A x1.5 shoved a full assist rebound into even strength while PPP sat at the collapsed PP rate, giving A=33/PPP=7 when every external read has the opposite shape (PPP 9-14, PP1). Fixed by trimming A to x1.3 and pinning PPP=11; total moves 50 -> ~47. Lost his top-6 job in 2025-26 (13.2 TOI, ended Q4 10.3 5v5 / 1.4 PP) - your line restores L2 + PP1-mix. THE UNLUCK IS REAL: 2025-26 g/60 0.42 was a career low on a career-HIGH ixG (0.74) and shot rate (6.74) - severe finishing bad luck - AND his assists cratered to 0.89 a/60 (half his 2024-25) at the same time. His proven form (2024-25, age 22) was 57 pts / 15 PPP at 2.91 pts/60; over a full 82 at 15.5 TOI that rate alone is ~61. Rather than bet the full career-best rate (the 'over-bumped past last season' failure the report card flagged - Pettersson/Matthews ran cold), hedge to ~2.35 pts/60: goals to his career-norm finishing (G x1.12, engine had already regressed the ixG), assists a strong partial rebound (A x1.5), PP back to a PP1-mix ~2.2 TOI. Lands ~49-50 - a genuine 50-point call, closer to 60 than 30, without assuming a role jump Bowness hasn't signaled. The 70-point ceiling is real but a 'when, not if' - not this season's base case.

Context brain — deployment, role, coaching & injury signals (why the line should move)

RiskKeep baseline low unless deployment improves; coach-trust dependent. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey

RiskKeep a cautious middle-six line until deployment stabilizes; deployment risk. · Apples & Ginos Fantasy Hockey (Blake Cramer)

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

We project it up

all5v5

We’re projecting goals 112% above last season, 8 to 17.

We project it up

PTS

all5v5

We’re projecting points 88% above last season, 24 to 45.

Below his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 62% below his 3-year rate last season (5.56 against 14.81).

Second-half surge

PIMs/60

PIMs/60 finished the year 112% above where it started (0.88 in the first half, 1.87 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Cole PerfettiLW,RW · Winnipeg Jets84% match
Igor ChernyshovLW · San Jose Sharks83% match
Connor McMichaelC,LW · St. Louis Blues82% match
Jordan EberleRW · Seattle Kraken81% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Kent Johnson is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Liam O'BrienLW · Utah Mammothcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Rick Bowness (CBJ)

Last year: Dean Evason Q1-Q2 → Rick Bowness Q3-Q4 · hired Jan — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	15.50	13.24	15.30	-13%
5v5 TOI	12.20	11.16	12.37	-10%
PP TOI	2.20	1.64	2.14	-23%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 20 · 17

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 15.50: headline TOI reconciled: 12.2 5v5 + 2.2 PP + PK/misc -> ~15.5, up from the 12.9 the engine carried from his lost-role 2025-26 (career year 2024-25 was 17.3).
5v5 TOI → 12.20: L2 role restored (Johnson-Monahan-Garland). 2025-26 collapsed to 11.2 5v5 and ended Q4 at 10.3 when he lost the top-6 job; blend that faithful low finish ~60/40 toward a genuine L2 (~12.8) -> 12.2.
PP TOI → 2.20: PP1-mix (not locked). Engine reads 1.64 off the collapsed finish; 2024-25 top-6 form was 2.55 PP TOI at ~15 PPP. Rotating PP1/PP2 with real PP1-mix time lands ~2.2.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	6.49	6.30	5.72	+10%
G/60	0.47	0.35	0.85	-59%
iSH%	9.07	5.56	14.81	-62%
ixG/60	–	0.62	0.52	+19%
iCF/60	–	13.16	11.06	+19%
iSCF/60	–	7.43	5.46	+36%
iHDCF/60	–	2.76	2.13	+29%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 20 · 17

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 5.6% vs 14.8% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.62 (50th pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 9.1%, lifting the goal rate ~35%.

TailwindShot volume up 10% (5v5 SOG/60 6.30 vs 5.72) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

TailwindAge 23 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.00	8.38	11.07	-24%
IPP	57.01	54.51	65.38	-17%
1A/60	0.50	0.42	0.64	-34%
2A/60	0.54	0.50	0.46	+8%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 20 · 17

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindIPP 54.5% sits below the 65.4% 3-yr mark — participation should rebound, nudging assists up.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 13.16 vs 11.06) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 2.76 vs 2.13) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	2.20	1.64	2.14	-23%
PP iSH%	11.16	4.76	15.80	-70%
PP SOG/60	9.93	10.09	8.46	+19%
PP ixG/60	–	1.45	1.04	+39%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 20 · 17

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 1.6→2.2 PP TOI/gp (PP1-mix (not locked). Engine reads 1.64 off the collapsed finish; 2024-25 top-6 form was 2.55 PP TOI at ~15 PPP. Rotating PP1/PP2 with real PP1-mix time lands ~2.2.) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (4.8% vs 15.8%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.71	1.27	0.87	+46%
Hits/60	1.26	1.06	0.64	+65%
Blks/60	2.05	2.33	1.64	+42%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 20 · 17

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 1.71/60 and 2nd-half 1.35 vs a 1.06 season rate (0.64 3-yr) (8th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.26/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 2.33/60 (43rd pct league-wide) → 2.05 projected.