Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2666 GP	H229 GP	H137 GP	Prev 3thin
TOI	15.17	15.17	14.62	14.50	–
PP TOI	1.04	1.04	1.28	0.86	–
G	17	16	14	18	–
A	22	22	26	20	–
PTS	39	39	40	38	–
PPP	6	6	6	7	–
SOG	192	185	193	179	–
PIM	26	32	34	31	–
Hits	73	72	58	83	–
Blocks	17	22	20	24	–

Sample: 66 GP · 891 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

123David Perron0

124Nathan Walker0

125Gabe Perreault0

126Arseny Gritsyuk-1

127Nicolas Deslauriers-1

128Carl Grundstrom-2

129Kent Johnson-2

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PP ixG/60

PP ixG/60 finished the year 150% above where it started (0.92 in the first half, 4.02 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 86% above where it started (0.59 in the first half, 1.10 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Top of the league

SOG/60

SOG/60 sits in the 97th percentile league-wide (8.82).

We project it down

PIM

all5v5

We’re projecting penalty minutes 19% below last season, 32 to 26.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Tij IginlaC,LW · Utah Mammoth89% match
Anton FrondellC · Chicago Blackhawks87% match
Jack QuinnRW · Buffalo Sabres84% match
Alexis LafrenièreLW,RW · New York Rangers83% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Arseny Gritsyuk is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Robert ThomasC · St. Louis Bluescovers 3
fills: A, PPP, G
Ivan DemidovRW · Montreal Canadienscovers 2
fills: A, PPP
Dylan StromeC · Washington Capitalscovers 3
fills: PPP, A, G
Mitch MarnerC,LW,RW · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, G

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Sheldon Keefe (NJD)

Last year: Sheldon Keefe full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
TOI	15.17	15.17	n/a
5v5 TOI	13.73	13.50	n/a
PP TOI	1.04	1.04	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 17 · 23 · 6

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 15.17: holds the rookie-season role
5v5 TOI → 13.73: holds the rookie-season role
PP TOI → 1.04: holds the rookie-season role

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
SOG/60	8.89	8.82	n/a
G/60	0.75	0.74	n/a
iSH%	8.39	8.39	n/a
ixG/60	–	0.67	n/a
iCF/60	–	15.89	n/a
iSCF/60	–	7.20	n/a
iHDCF/60	–	2.29	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 17 · 23 · 6

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
on-ice SH%	8.31	8.31	n/a
IPP	65.06	65.06	n/a
1A/60	0.74	0.74	n/a
2A/60	0.27	0.27	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 17 · 23 · 6

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.3%, IPP 65.1%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PP TOI	1.04	1.04	n/a
PP iSH%	15.37	15.37	n/a
PP SOG/60	13.77	11.32	n/a
PP ixG/60	–	1.35	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 17 · 23 · 6

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~1.0 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PIMs/60	1.28	1.62	n/a
Hits/60	3.84	3.84	n/a
Blks/60	0.87	1.14	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 17 · 23 · 6

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 3.84/60 (47th pct league-wide) → 3.84 projected.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.00/60 and 2nd-half 0.70 below the 1.14 season rate — projected DOWN to 0.87/60, weighting the recent decline over the n/a 3-yr mark.