Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2646 GP	H221 GP	H125 GP	Prev 3174 GP · 3y
TOI	11.77	11.99	11.23	12.31	11.18
PP TOI	0.07	0.06	0.06	0.07	0.09
G	8	7	4	10	8
A	11	12	4	20	10
PTS	19	20	8	30	18
PPP	0	0	0	0	0
SOG	73	69	45	90	74
PIM	52	50	50	49	50
Hits	245	319	328	311	216
Blocks	64	62	56	68	62

Sample: 46 GP · 494 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

121Evan Rodrigues0

122Cole Sillinger0

123David Perron0

124Nathan Walker0

125Gabe Perreault0

126Arseny Gritsyuk-1

127Nicolas Deslauriers-1

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

all5v5

Assists ran at a 4 pace in the second half after 20 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

PTS

all5v5

Points ran at a 8 pace in the second half after 30 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

ixG/60

ixG/60 ran 43% above his 3-year rate last season (0.63 against 0.44).

Above his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 45% above his 3-year rate last season (21.74 against 14.99).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Garnet HathawayRW · Florida Panthers93% match
shared: Hits, Blocks, PIM
Elias PetterssonC · Vancouver Canucks92% match
shared: Blocks, Hits, PIM
Marcus FolignoLW · Minnesota Wild92% match
shared: Hits, Blocks, PIM
Tanner JeannotLW,RW · Boston Bruins91% match
shared: Hits, Blocks, PIM

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Nathan Walker is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 4
fills: SOG, A, PPP, G
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 4
fills: PPP, SOG, G, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jim Montgomery (STL)

Last year: Jim Montgomery full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	11.77	11.99	11.18	+7%
5v5 TOI	10.60	10.74	10.45	+3%
PP TOI	0.07	0.06	0.09	-37%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 5 · 15 · 6

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 11.77: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 10.60: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.07: same coach (Jim Montgomery) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.1, Q4 0.1) over the full-year 0.1

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.02	4.61	4.78	-4%
G/60	0.43	0.49	0.53	-7%
iSH%	10.78	10.63	11.03	-4%
ixG/60	–	0.63	0.44	+43%
iCF/60	–	8.50	8.88	-4%
iSCF/60	–	5.46	5.02	+9%
iHDCF/60	–	3.40	2.11	+61%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 5 · 15 · 6

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.63 (52nd pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.44 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

RiskAge 32 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.12	10.45	8.59	+22%
IPP	58.80	58.01	63.85	-9%
1A/60	0.41	0.49	0.30	+63%
2A/60	0.35	0.36	0.40	-9%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 5 · 15 · 6

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 10.5% vs a 8.6% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 3.40 vs 2.11) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.07	0.06	0.09	-37%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	0.00
PP SOG/60	1.82	0.00	7.27	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	1.88	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 5 · 15 · 6

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.1→0.1 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Jim Montgomery) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.1, Q4 0.1) over the full-year 0.1) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	3.14	3.16	3.43	-8%
Hits/60	18.09	21.74	14.99	+45%
Blks/60	3.73	3.64	3.86	-6%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 5 · 15 · 6

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindElite hits volume (99th pct) and role-stable — a bankable hits floor (18.09/60 projected).

ContextBlocks role-stable at 3.64/60 (73rd pct league-wide) → 3.73 projected.

TailwindStrong PIM rate (3.16/60 (84th pct league-wide)) — a banger-league asset.