Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2628 GP	H222 GP	H16 GP	Prev 3thin
TOI	9.54	9.15	9.63	–	–
PP TOI	0.08	0.07	0.10	–	–
G	13	12	12	–	–
A	6	6	8	–	–
PTS	19	18	21	–	–
PPP	0	0	0	–	–
SOG	73	67	78	–	–
PIM	31	32	16	–	–
Hits	161	155	160	–	–
Blocks	49	47	49	–	–

Sample: 28 GP · 253 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingRight wing · league-wide (of 273)

199Simon Holmstrom-30

200Rutger McGroarty-30

201Logan O'Connor-31

202Jaroslav Chmelar-31

203Gage Goncalves-32

204Ryan Winterton-32

205Steven Lorentz-32

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Bottom of the league

TOI

TOI sits in the 3th percentile league-wide (9.15).

Top of the league

iSH%

iSH% sits in the 96th percentile league-wide (18.27).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Scott LaughtonLW · Los Angeles Kings88% match
shared: Hits, Blocks
Yakov TreninLW,RW · Minnesota Wild85% match
shared: Hits
Elias PetterssonC · Vancouver Canucks85% match
shared: Hits, Blocks
Vasily PodkolzinLW,RW · Edmonton Oilers85% match
shared: Hits, Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Jaroslav Chmelar is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 4
fills: PPP, SOG, G, A
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 4
fills: SOG, A, PPP, G

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Mike Sullivan (NYR)

Last year: Mike Sullivan full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
TOI	9.54	9.15	n/a
5v5 TOI	9.55	9.06	n/a
PP TOI	0.08	0.07	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 2 · 4 · 2 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 9.54: one NHL season — role grown +4% toward a sophomore workload
5v5 TOI → 9.55: same coach (Mike Sullivan) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 9.5, Q4 9.5) over the full-year 9.1; one NHL season — role grown +4% toward a sophomore workload
PP TOI → 0.08: same coach (Mike Sullivan) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.1, Q4 0.1) over the full-year 0.1; one NHL season — role grown +4% toward a sophomore workload

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
SOG/60	5.36	5.20	n/a
G/60	0.98	0.95	n/a
iSH%	18.27	18.27	n/a
ixG/60	–	0.54	n/a
iCF/60	–	9.70	n/a
iSCF/60	–	6.15	n/a
iHDCF/60	–	3.31	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 2 · 4 · 2 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindAge 22 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

TailwindAge 22 on a single NHL season — projected a development step, not a flat repeat: scoring rates +6% and role +4% toward the mid-20s peak (a young riser improves on last year, not repeats it).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
on-ice SH%	7.99	7.99	n/a
IPP	75.13	75.13	n/a
1A/60	0.00	0.00	n/a
2A/60	0.47	0.47	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 2 · 4 · 2 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.0%, IPP 75.1%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PP TOI	0.08	0.07	n/a
PP iSH%	0.00	0.00	n/a
PP SOG/60	29.75	29.75	n/a
PP ixG/60	–	4.21	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 2 · 4 · 2 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.1→0.1 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Mike Sullivan) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.1, Q4 0.1) over the full-year 0.1; one NHL season — role grown +4% toward a sophomore workload) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PIMs/60	2.38	2.60	n/a
Hits/60	12.54	12.54	n/a
Blks/60	3.79	3.79	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 2 · 4 · 2 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindElite hits volume (90th pct) and role-stable — a bankable hits floor (12.54/60 projected).

ContextBlocks role-stable at 3.79/60 (76th pct league-wide) → 3.79 projected.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.24/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.