Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2679 GP	H238 GP	H141 GP	Prev 3200 GP · 3y
TOI	16.40	16.73	16.26	15.05	14.09
PP TOI	1.53	1.41	1.84	1.01	0.76
G	21	20	23	16	17
A	22	23	23	22	16
PTS	43	43	47	38	32
PPP	4	4	6	2	2
SOG	105	104	123	86	85
PIM	11	17	13	20	9
Hits	20	17	15	18	23
Blocks	47	47	38	55	50

Sample: 79 GP · 961 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

193Michael Rasmussen-29

194Alexey Toropchenko-29

195Pontus Holmberg-29

196Simon Holmstrom-30

197Adam Erne-30

198Ryan Greene-30

199Adam Henrique-30

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

PP TOI

PP TOI finished the year 82% above where it started (1.01 in the first half, 1.83 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

ixG/60

ixG/60 finished the year 61% above where it started (0.42 in the first half, 0.67 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Below his 3-year rate

PP SOG/60

PP SOG/60 ran 32% below his 3-year rate last season (4.31 against 6.35).

Above his 3-year rate

TOI

TOI ran 19% above his 3-year rate last season (16.73 against 14.09).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Matty BeniersC · Seattle Kraken85% match
shared: Blocks
Matvei GridinRW · Calgary Flames81% match
shared: Blocks
Cole PerfettiLW,RW · Winnipeg Jets80% match
Igor ChernyshovLW · San Jose Sharks79% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Simon Holmstrom is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Peter DeBoer (NYI)

Last year: Patrick Roy Q1-Q4 → Peter DeBoer final 4 games · Q4 — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	16.40	16.73	14.09	+19%
5v5 TOI	12.25	12.18	11.77	+3%
PP TOI	1.53	1.41	0.76	+86%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 17

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 16.40: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 12.25: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 1.53: same coach (Peter DeBoer) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 1.8, Q4 1.7) over the full-year 1.4

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.72	4.43	4.03	+10%
G/60	0.82	0.75	0.74	+2%
iSH%	17.46	16.93	18.33	-8%
ixG/60	–	0.54	0.48	+12%
iCF/60	–	9.23	9.02	+2%
iSCF/60	–	6.11	5.68	+8%
iHDCF/60	–	2.25	2.22	+2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 17

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.54 (42nd pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.48 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindShot volume up 10% (5v5 SOG/60 4.43 vs 4.03) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.42→0.67 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.53	10.45	8.88	+18%
IPP	58.97	58.21	59.92	-3%
1A/60	0.46	0.37	0.48	-24%
2A/60	0.30	0.44	0.18	+149%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 17

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 10.5%, IPP 58.2%).

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.44 vs 3-yr 0.18) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.53	1.41	0.76	+86%
PP iSH%	12.52	12.53	12.52	+0%
PP SOG/60	4.31	4.31	6.35	-32%
PP ixG/60	–	1.02	0.92	+11%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 17

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 1.4→1.5 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Peter DeBoer) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 1.8, Q4 1.7) over the full-year 1.4) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 1.02 vs 0.92) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.53	0.75	0.41	+85%
Hits/60	1.05	0.87	1.32	-34%
Blks/60	1.80	1.93	2.65	-27%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 21 · 21 · 17

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 1.42/60 and 2nd-half 0.83 vs a 0.87 season rate (1.32 3-yr) (5th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.05/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.85/60 and 2nd-half 1.35 below the 1.93 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.80/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.65 3-yr mark.