Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2670 GP	H236 GP	H134 GP	Prev 3159 GP · 3y
TOI	13.15	13.35	13.46	12.75	11.77
PP TOI	0.21	0.16	0.22	0.09	0.21
G	11	13	9	17	10
A	15	13	11	15	16
PTS	26	26	21	31	25
PPP	1	0	0	0	1
SOG	97	107	104	110	77
PIM	43	36	43	29	32
Hits	73	77	70	86	62
Blocks	50	36	33	40	56

Sample: 70 GP · 895 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

164Pius Suter-29

165J.T. Compher-29

166Michael Rasmussen-29

167Pontus Holmberg-29

168Blake Lizotte-30

169Justin Kirkland-30

170Ryan Greene-30

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

all5v5

Goals ran at a 9 pace in the second half after 17 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

ixG/60

ixG/60 ran 50% above his 3-year rate last season (0.83 against 0.55).

We project it up

BLK

all5v5

We’re projecting blocks 39% above last season, 36 to 50.

Second-half surge

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 43 pace in the second half after 29 in the first, per 82 games.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Scott LaughtonLW · Los Angeles Kings84% match
shared: Blocks
Easton CowanC,RW · Toronto Maple Leafs84% match
Erik HaulaC,LW · Los Angeles Kings82% match
shared: Blocks
Elias PetterssonC · Vancouver Canucks81% match
shared: Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Pontus Holmberg is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 3
fills: SOG, PPP, A
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Patrick KaneRW · Chicago Blackhawkscovers 3
fills: PPP, A, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jon Cooper (TBL)

Last year: Jon Cooper full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	13.15	13.35	11.77	+13%
5v5 TOI	12.28	12.80	10.68	+20%
PP TOI	0.21	0.16	0.21	-24%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 19 · 21 · 15

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 13.15: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 12.28: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.21: same coach (Jon Cooper) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.2, Q4 0.3) over the full-year 0.2

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.83	5.83	4.80	+21%
G/60	0.58	0.60	0.46	+31%
iSH%	10.00	10.29	9.51	+8%
ixG/60	–	0.83	0.55	+50%
iCF/60	–	12.79	9.68	+32%
iSCF/60	–	8.37	6.15	+36%
iHDCF/60	–	4.02	3.11	+29%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 19 · 21 · 15

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.83 (79th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.55 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindShot volume up 21% (5v5 SOG/60 5.83 vs 4.80) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.55	8.42	8.91	-6%
IPP	63.35	64.42	60.49	+7%
1A/60	0.45	0.40	0.60	-33%
2A/60	0.35	0.33	0.35	-6%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 19 · 21 · 15

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.4%, IPP 64.4%).

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 12.79 vs 9.68) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 4.02 vs 3.11) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.21	0.16	0.21	-24%
PP iSH%	14.49	0.00	24.98	-100%
PP SOG/60	6.97	5.50	7.32	-25%
PP ixG/60	–	1.25	1.27	-2%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 19 · 21 · 15

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.2→0.2 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Jon Cooper) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.2, Q4 0.3) over the full-year 0.2) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP finishing ran cold (0.0% vs 25.0%) over steady PP chances — PP goals should rebound.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.81	2.08	1.91	+9%
Hits/60	4.29	4.35	4.20	+3%
Blks/60	2.02	2.01	3.32	-39%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 15 · 19 · 21 · 15

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 4.35/60 (54th pct league-wide) → 4.29 projected.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 0.69/60 and 2nd-half 1.55 below the 2.01 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.02/60, weighting the recent decline over the 3.32 3-yr mark.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.07/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.