Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H239 GP	H143 GP	Prev 3235 GP · 3y
TOI	16.32	15.67	15.14	14.75	18.91
PP TOI	0.98	0.67	0.90	0.47	2.26
G	13	11	15	8	16
A	22	17	18	16	30
PTS	35	28	32	24	46
PPP	4	1	2	0	12
SOG	104	95	101	89	126
PIM	25	27	21	32	32
Hits	24	22	18	26	41
Blocks	60	54	49	59	69

Sample: 82 GP · 1,043 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

162Nicolas Roy-28

163Colton Sissons-29

164Pius Suter-29

165J.T. Compher-29

166Michael Rasmussen-29

167Pontus Holmberg-29

168Blake Lizotte-30

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 93% above where it started (9.78 in the first half, 18.90 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Below his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 70% below his 3-year rate last season (0.67 against 2.26).

Second-half surge

iHDCF/60

iHDCF/60 finished the year 74% above where it started (2.30 in the first half, 4.00 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

We project it up

all5v5

We’re projecting assists 29% above last season, 17 to 22.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Matty BeniersC · Seattle Kraken85% match
shared: Blocks
Connor McMichaelC,LW · St. Louis Blues82% match
shared: Blocks
Morgan FrostC · Calgary Flames81% match
shared: Blocks
Frank NazarC,RW · Chicago Blackhawks80% match
shared: Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where J.T. Compher is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Alex LaferriereC,LW,RW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 2
fills: Hits, SOG
Owen TippettLW,RW · Philadelphia Flyerscovers 2
fills: SOG, Hits
Bobby McMannLW · Seattle Krakencovers 2
fills: SOG, Hits
Frank VatranoLW · Anaheim Duckscovers 2
fills: Hits, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Todd McLellan (DET)

Last year: Todd McLellan full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	16.32	15.67	18.91	-17%
5v5 TOI	13.19	12.73	13.61	-6%
PP TOI	0.98	0.67	2.26	-70%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 21 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 16.32: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 13.19: same coach (Todd McLellan) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 12.8, Q4 14.3) over the full-year 12.7
PP TOI → 0.98: same coach (Todd McLellan) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.9, Q4 1.0) over the full-year 0.7

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.43	4.43	4.59	-4%
G/60	0.58	0.63	0.53	+20%
iSH%	13.18	14.22	11.47	+24%
ixG/60	–	0.62	0.55	+12%
iCF/60	–	8.45	8.06	+5%
iSCF/60	–	5.46	5.50	-1%
iHDCF/60	–	3.10	2.55	+22%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 21 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.62 (50th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.55 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.55→0.70 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.93	9.04	8.72	+4%
IPP	64.10	63.14	65.87	-4%
1A/60	0.63	0.63	0.64	-2%
2A/60	0.36	0.23	0.39	-41%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 21 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 9.0%, IPP 63.1%).

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 3.10 vs 2.55) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.98	0.67	2.26	-70%
PP iSH%	14.42	0.00	18.49	-100%
PP SOG/60	9.40	7.59	9.14	-17%
PP ixG/60	–	1.29	1.93	-33%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 21 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.7→1.0 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Todd McLellan) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.9, Q4 1.0) over the full-year 0.7) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.36	1.55	1.44	+7%
Hits/60	1.15	1.09	1.93	-44%
Blks/60	2.50	2.36	2.70	-13%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 22 · 21 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 0.47/60 and 2nd-half 0.86 below the 1.09 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.15/60, weighting the recent decline over the 1.93 3-yr mark.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 2.36/60 (44th pct league-wide) → 2.50 projected.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.06/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.