Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2674 GP	H236 GP	H138 GP	Prev 3206 GP · 3y
TOI	14.61	14.46	13.93	14.35	15.64
PP TOI	0.30	0.86	0.74	0.97	1.53
G	12	9	9	9	17
A	19	19	16	22	24
PTS	31	28	25	30	41
PPP	1	2	2	2	7
SOG	91	84	83	85	127
PIM	38	25	39	13	38
Hits	76	79	66	91	92
Blocks	48	44	54	35	47

Sample: 74 GP · 873 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

159Noah Ostlund-27

160Zack Ostapchuk-28

161Jake Evans-28

162Nicolas Roy-28

163Colton Sissons-29

164Pius Suter-29

165J.T. Compher-29

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): 3rd-line C on COL with no power-play role - PP TOI trimmed to spot duty (1.13 -> 0.3) to match the depth chart.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

We project it down

PP TOI

We’re projecting PP TOI 65% below last season, 0.86 to 0.30.

Second-half surge

PIMs/60

PIMs/60 finished the year 150% above where it started (0.81 in the first half, 2.87 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

BLK

all5v5

Blocks ran at a 54 pace in the second half after 35 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it up

all5v5

We’re projecting goals 33% above last season, 9 to 12.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Scott LaughtonLW · Los Angeles Kings88% match
shared: Blocks, Hits
Easton CowanC,RW · Toronto Maple Leafs87% match
shared: Hits
Jake NeighboursLW,RW · St. Louis Blues86% match
shared: Blocks, Hits
Erik HaulaC,LW · Los Angeles Kings86% match
shared: Blocks, Hits

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Nicolas Roy is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 3
fills: SOG, PPP, A
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 3
fills: PPP, SOG, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jared Bednar (COL)

Last year (TOR, traded): Jared Bednar COL · pre-trade → Craig Berube TOR · acquired mid-season (small sample) — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	14.61	14.46	15.64	-8%
5v5 TOI	11.77	11.80	12.46	-5%
PP TOI	0.30	0.86	1.53	-44%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 19 · 23 · 13

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 14.61: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 11.77: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.30: off both COL PP units (not in the locks, the in-the-mix swing, or PP2). Engine carried 1.13 PP TOI - a Vegas carryover H2-weighted up by a fluky Q4 (1.62). Trim to spot duty only; every other COL bottom-six F is near-zero. Removes the phantom PPP.

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.74	3.71	5.40	-31%
G/60	0.46	0.41	0.72	-43%
iSH%	12.42	11.05	13.41	-18%
ixG/60	–	0.55	0.71	-22%
iCF/60	–	8.93	10.30	-13%
iSCF/60	–	6.46	7.08	-9%
iHDCF/60	–	3.16	3.83	-18%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 19 · 23 · 13

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 11.1% sits near the 13.4% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.55 (42nd pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

RiskShot volume down 31% (5v5 SOG/60 3.71 vs 5.40) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.48→0.61 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.30	10.19	8.30	+23%
IPP	60.33	54.36	74.28	-27%
1A/60	0.54	0.62	0.51	+21%
2A/60	0.40	0.27	0.44	-39%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 19 · 23 · 13

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 10.2% vs a 8.3% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.30	0.86	1.53	-44%
PP iSH%	9.85	10.51	9.38	+12%
PP SOG/60	15.81	17.99	12.15	+48%
PP ixG/60	–	4.40	2.53	+74%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 19 · 23 · 13

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 0.9→0.3 PP TOI/gp (off both COL PP units (not in the locks, the in-the-mix swing, or PP2). Engine carried 1.13 PP TOI - a Vegas carryover H2-weighted up by a fluky Q4 (1.62). Trim to spot duty only; every other COL bottom-six F is near-zero. Removes the phantom PPP.) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 4.40 vs 2.53) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.13	1.58	1.66	-5%
Hits/60	4.69	4.81	5.16	-7%
Blks/60	2.31	2.06	2.36	-13%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 19 · 23 · 13

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 3.61/60 and 2nd-half 4.01 below the 4.81 season rate — projected DOWN to 4.69/60, weighting the recent decline over the 5.16 3-yr mark.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 2.41/60 and 2nd-half 2.64 vs a 2.06 season rate (2.36 3-yr) (34th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.31/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.07/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.