Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 143% above his 3-year rate last season (9.68 against 3.99).

Second-half surge

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 83 pace in the second half after 23 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

1A/60

1A/60 finished the year 56% below where it started (0.42 in the first half, 0.18 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

SOG/60

SOG/60 ran 58% above his 3-year rate last season (4.75 against 3.01).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Zachary L'HeureuxLW,RW · Colorado Avalanche93% match
shared: Hits, PIM
Dakota JoshuaLW · Toronto Maple Leafs91% match
shared: Hits, PIM
Jeffrey VielLW · Tampa Bay Lightning91% match
shared: Hits, PIM
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightning91% match
shared: Hits, PIM

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Zack Ostapchuk is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 4
fills: SOG, A, PPP, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 4
fills: PPP, SOG, G, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Ryan Warsofsky (SJS)

Last year: Ryan Warsofsky full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	10.27	10.09	9.42	+7%
5v5 TOI	8.92	8.78	8.90	-1%
PP TOI	0.04	0.04	0.06	-45%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 3 · 16 · 19 · 21

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 10.27: holds last year's role; age 23 riser — small growth bias
5v5 TOI → 8.92: holds last year's role; age 23 riser — small growth bias
PP TOI → 0.04: same coach (Ryan Warsofsky) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.0, Q4 0.1) over the full-year 0.0; age 23 riser — small growth bias

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.89	4.75	3.01	+58%
G/60	0.37	0.46	0.12	+283%
iSH%	7.52	9.68	3.99	+143%
ixG/60	–	0.56	0.40	+40%
iCF/60	–	8.11	6.14	+32%
iSCF/60	–	5.68	3.73	+52%
iHDCF/60	–	3.36	1.81	+86%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 3 · 16 · 19 · 21

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.56 (43rd pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.40 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindShot volume up 58% (5v5 SOG/60 4.75 vs 3.01) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

TailwindAge 23 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	7.03	7.62	4.31	+77%
IPP	46.85	46.36	50.00	-7%
1A/60	0.18	0.23	0.12	+92%
2A/60	0.16	0.00	0.24	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 3 · 16 · 19 · 21

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 7.6% vs a 4.3% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 8.11 vs 6.14) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 3.36 vs 1.81) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.04	0.04	0.06	-45%
PP iSH%	0.00	0.00	n/a
PP SOG/60	25.26	28.57	0.00
PP ixG/60	–	1.58	0.00

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 3 · 16 · 19 · 21

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.0→0.0 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Ryan Warsofsky) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.0, Q4 0.1) over the full-year 0.0; age 23 riser — small growth bias) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	6.19	4.98	5.42	-8%
Hits/60	14.91	16.10	13.13	+23%
Blks/60	2.74	2.55	2.41	+6%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 3 · 16 · 19 · 21

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindElite hits volume (95th pct) and role-stable — a bankable hits floor (14.91/60 projected).

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 2.92/60 and 2nd-half 3.33 vs a 2.55 season rate (2.41 3-yr) (50th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.74/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.35/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.