Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2652 GP	H231 GP	H121 GP	Prev 3243 GP · 3y
TOI	13.43	13.29	13.77	11.65	16.52
PP TOI	1.33	1.26	1.28	1.23	2.34
G	11	13	15	9	12
A	23	21	24	16	29
PTS	34	33	38	25	42
PPP	4	3	3	4	8
SOG	100	90	85	97	134
PIM	58	55	51	61	79
Hits	38	35	37	31	49
Blocks	24	24	32	12	26

Sample: 52 GP · 601 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

154Oskar Sundqvist-25

155Barclay Goodrow-26

156Aatu Raty-26

157Ryan Strome-26

158Bradly Nadeau-27

159Noah Ostlund-27

160Zack Ostapchuk-28

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

all5v5

Goals ran at a 15 pace in the second half after 9 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

Hits/60

Hits/60 finished the year 69% above where it started (1.51 in the first half, 2.56 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Below his 3-year rate

PP SOG/60

PP SOG/60 ran 74% below his 3-year rate last season (1.83 against 6.96).

Below his 3-year rate

PP TOI

PP TOI ran 46% below his 3-year rate last season (1.26 against 2.34).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Max DomiC,RW · Toronto Maple Leafs93% match
shared: PIM
Zach BensonLW · Buffalo Sabres89% match
shared: PIM
Taylor HallLW · Carolina Hurricanes82% match
Easton CowanC,RW · Toronto Maple Leafs80% match
shared: PIM

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Ryan Strome is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Cole CaufieldLW · Montreal Canadienscovers 4
fills: G, SOG, PPP, A
Aleksander BarkovC · Florida Pantherscovers 5
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
Rickard RakellLW,RW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 4
fills: G, SOG, Hits, PPP
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 4
fills: SOG, A, PPP, G

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Ryan Huska (CGY)

Last year (CGY, traded): Joel Quenneville ANA · pre-trade → Ryan Huska CGY · acquired mid-season (small sample) — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	13.43	13.29	16.52	-20%
5v5 TOI	11.89	11.57	13.20	-12%
PP TOI	1.33	1.26	2.34	-46%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 5 · 16 · 13 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 13.43: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 11.89: same coach (Ryan Huska) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 12.2, Q4 13.2) over the full-year 11.6
PP TOI → 1.33: reverts toward the 3-yr 2.3

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.06	5.29	5.73	-8%
G/60	0.53	0.60	0.52	+15%
iSH%	10.50	11.34	9.13	+24%
ixG/60	–	0.74	0.60	+23%
iCF/60	–	11.17	9.73	+15%
iSCF/60	–	6.48	5.32	+22%
iHDCF/60	–	3.69	2.86	+29%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 5 · 16 · 13 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.74 (66th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.60 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 1.04 (1st half) to 0.57 (2nd).

RiskAge 33 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.36	9.67	8.56	+13%
IPP	66.52	66.91	65.48	+2%
1A/60	0.66	0.60	0.62	-3%
2A/60	0.47	0.60	0.49	+23%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 5 · 16 · 13 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 9.7%, IPP 66.9%).

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 11.17 vs 9.73) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 3.69 vs 2.86) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	1.33	1.26	2.34	-46%
PP iSH%	14.49	49.73	4.55	+993%
PP SOG/60	3.11	1.83	6.96	-74%
PP ixG/60	–	0.46	1.34	-66%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 5 · 16 · 13 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~1.3 PP TOI/gp.

RiskPP finishing ran hot (49.7% vs 4.6% 3-yr) with flat PP chances (PP ixG/60 0.46) — expect PP goals to cool.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	3.04	3.09	3.72	-17%
Hits/60	2.24	2.19	2.60	-16%
Blks/60	1.52	1.50	1.33	+13%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 5 · 16 · 13 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 2.19/60 (27th pct league-wide) → 2.24 projected.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 1.76/60 and 2nd-half 1.90 vs a 1.50 season rate (1.33 3-yr) (17th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 1.52/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.10/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.