Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2666 GP	H233 GP	H133 GP	Prev 333 GP · 1y
TOI	12.20	12.02	11.83	11.80	10.66
PP TOI	0.11	0.12	0.08	0.17	0.19
G	12	5	2	7	17
A	11	12	5	20	10
PTS	23	17	7	27	27
PPP	0	0	0	0	2
SOG	84	81	86	76	84
PIM	28	27	17	37	35
Hits	212	205	209	201	199
Blocks	19	20	20	20	17

Sample: 66 GP · 713 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

153Denver Barkey-25

154Oskar Sundqvist-25

155Barclay Goodrow-26

156Aatu Raty-26

157Ryan Strome-26

158Bradly Nadeau-27

159Noah Ostlund-27

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

all5v5

Assists ran at a 5 pace in the second half after 20 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

PTS

all5v5

Points ran at a 7 pace in the second half after 27 in the first, per 82 games.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Yakov TreninLW,RW · Minnesota Wild82% match
shared: Hits
Jacob MelansonRW · Seattle Kraken79% match
shared: Hits
Kiefer SherwoodLW,RW · San Jose Sharks79% match
shared: Hits
Mackie SamoskevichLW,RW · Seattle Kraken78% match
shared: Hits

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Aatu Raty is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
Clayton KellerLW · Utah Mammothcovers 4
fills: PPP, A, SOG, G
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 4
fills: PPP, SOG, G, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Manny Malhotra (VAN) new voice

Last year: Adam Foote full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	12.20	12.02	10.66	+13%
5v5 TOI	10.96	10.82	10.28	+5%
PP TOI	0.11	0.12	0.19	-36%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 13 · 14 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 12.20: holds last year's role; age 23 riser — small growth bias
5v5 TOI → 10.96: holds last year's role; age 23 riser — small growth bias
PP TOI → 0.11: role tapered late (Q4 0.1 vs 0.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.19	5.04	5.48	-8%
G/60	0.46	0.34	1.24	-73%
iSH%	12.78	6.75	22.63	-70%
ixG/60	–	0.69	0.63	+10%
iCF/60	–	11.10	9.90	+12%
iSCF/60	–	6.47	6.01	+8%
iHDCF/60	–	2.86	3.18	-10%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 13 · 14 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 6.7% vs 22.6% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.69 (60th pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 12.8%, lifting the goal rate ~35%.

TailwindAge 23 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	8.55	7.92	11.62	-32%
IPP	66.69	66.67	66.79	-0%
1A/60	0.37	0.50	0.18	+178%
2A/60	0.35	0.34	0.35	-3%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 13 · 14 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 7.9%, IPP 66.7%).

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 11.10 vs 9.90) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.11	0.12	0.19	-36%
PP iSH%	0.00	0.00	0.00
PP SOG/60	9.52	15.09	19.35	-22%
PP ixG/60	–	3.69	0.62	+495%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 13 · 14 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 0.1→0.1 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.1 vs 0.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 3.69 vs 0.62) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.40	1.68	2.12	-21%
Hits/60	13.60	13.36	13.97	-4%
Blks/60	1.13	1.18	1.06	+11%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 13 · 14 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindElite hits volume (92nd pct) and role-stable — a bankable hits floor (13.60/60 projected).

RiskBottom-of-league blocks (7th pct) — no meaningful floor here, don't draft for it.