Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2652 GP	H219 GP	H133 GP	Prev 3205 GP · 3y
TOI	13.09	12.97	11.93	12.95	13.44
PP TOI	0.95	0.90	0.54	1.18	1.43
G	8	8	13	5	9
A	18	19	9	25	19
PTS	26	27	21	30	28
PPP	5	2	0	2	8
SOG	68	58	55	61	79
PIM	46	41	63	28	37
Hits	104	109	129	97	89
Blocks	49	41	44	39	51

Sample: 52 GP · 528 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

151Casey Mittelstadt-25

152Connor Zary-25

153Denver Barkey-25

154Oskar Sundqvist-25

155Barclay Goodrow-26

156Aatu Raty-26

157Ryan Strome-26

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 150% above where it started (12.60 in the first half, 61.04 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 63 pace in the second half after 28 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

ixG/60

ixG/60 ran 41% below his 3-year rate last season (0.30 against 0.51).

We project it up

BLK

all5v5

We’re projecting blocks 20% above last season, 41 to 49.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Scott LaughtonLW · Los Angeles Kings90% match
shared: Blocks, Hits
Jake NeighboursLW,RW · St. Louis Blues88% match
shared: Blocks, Hits
Easton CowanC,RW · Toronto Maple Leafs87% match
shared: Hits
Erik HaulaC,LW · Los Angeles Kings86% match
shared: Hits, Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Oskar Sundqvist is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 4
fills: SOG, A, PPP, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
Kyle ConnorLW · Winnipeg Jetscovers 4
fills: SOG, G, A, PPP

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jim Montgomery (STL)

Last year: Jim Montgomery full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	13.09	12.97	13.44	-4%
5v5 TOI	10.27	10.16	10.61	-4%
PP TOI	0.95	0.90	1.43	-37%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 20 · 14 · 5

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 13.09: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 10.27: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.95: role tapered late (Q4 0.5 vs 0.9 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	2.83	2.95	3.97	-26%
G/60	0.41	0.57	0.25	+128%
iSH%	11.76	19.32	6.28	+208%
ixG/60	–	0.30	0.51	-41%
iCF/60	–	5.68	8.47	-33%
iSCF/60	–	2.84	4.63	-39%
iHDCF/60	–	1.36	2.35	-42%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 20 · 14 · 5

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 19.3% vs a 6.3% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.30 (32nd pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 11.8% pulls the goal rate ~28% down.

RiskShot volume down 26% (5v5 SOG/60 2.95 vs 3.97) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

RiskAge 32 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.43	11.82	7.62	+55%
IPP	76.46	84.26	60.62	+39%
1A/60	0.68	0.79	0.49	+60%
2A/60	0.35	0.45	0.36	+25%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 20 · 14 · 5

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskAssists projected DOWN: on-ice SH% 11.8% (3-yr 7.6%) AND IPP 84.3% (3-yr 60.6%) both ran hot — team finishing + participation luck stacked. Regressing both trims the assist rate ~10%.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.95	0.90	1.43	-37%
PP iSH%	18.59	0.00	23.83	-100%
PP SOG/60	8.83	9.01	8.59	+5%
PP ixG/60	–	2.09	2.36	-11%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 20 · 14 · 5

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~1.0 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	3.34	2.50	2.27	+10%
Hits/60	7.43	7.15	5.74	+25%
Blks/60	2.37	2.16	2.90	-25%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 13 · 20 · 14 · 5

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 11.68/60 and 2nd-half 9.78 vs a 7.15 season rate (5.74 3-yr) (76th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 7.43/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.17/60 and 2nd-half 2.12 below the 2.16 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.37/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.90 3-yr mark.