Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2645 GP	H229 GP	H116 GP	Prev 385 GP · 2y
TOI	10.50	10.01	10.04	9.65	11.81
PP TOI	0.05	0.05	0.06	0.01	0.04
G	9	11	8	12	9
A	7	4	3	6	11
PTS	16	15	11	18	19
PPP	0	0	0	0	0
SOG	65	78	82	65	66
PIM	29	35	48	12	27
Hits	219	259	252	258	220
Blocks	40	36	34	41	46

Sample: 45 GP · 443 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

194Alexey Toropchenko-29

195Pontus Holmberg-29

196Simon Holmstrom-30

197Adam Erne-30

198Ryan Greene-30

199Adam Henrique-30

200Reid Schaefer-30

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

ixG/60

ixG/60 ran 89% above his 3-year rate last season (0.85 against 0.45).

Second-half surge

PIMs/60

PIMs/60 finished the year 150% above where it started (0.89 in the first half, 3.54 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Above his 3-year rate

iHDCF/60

iHDCF/60 ran 99% above his 3-year rate last season (4.60 against 2.32).

Bottom of the league

1A/60

1A/60 sits in the 4th percentile league-wide (0.00).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Yakov TreninLW,RW · Minnesota Wild91% match
shared: Hits
Emil HeinemanLW,RW · New York Islanders84% match
shared: Hits
Vasily PodkolzinLW,RW · Edmonton Oilers83% match
shared: Hits
Alex SteevesLW · Boston Bruins83% match
shared: Hits

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Adam Erne is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 4
fills: PPP, SOG, G, A
Clayton KellerLW · Utah Mammothcovers 4
fills: PPP, A, SOG, G

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Glen Gulutzan (DAL)

Last year: Glen Gulutzan full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	10.50	10.01	11.81	-15%
5v5 TOI	10.05	9.86	10.36	-5%
PP TOI	0.05	0.05	0.04	+12%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 2 · 14 · 15

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 10.50: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 10.05: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.05: same coach (Glen Gulutzan) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.1, Q4 0.1) over the full-year 0.0

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.81	5.81	4.16	+40%
G/60	0.75	0.81	0.47	+71%
iSH%	12.96	13.94	11.37	+23%
ixG/60	–	0.85	0.45	+89%
iCF/60	–	11.76	9.06	+30%
iSCF/60	–	7.71	5.39	+43%
iHDCF/60	–	4.60	2.32	+99%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 2 · 14 · 15

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.85 (82nd pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.45 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindShot volume up 40% (5v5 SOG/60 5.81 vs 4.16) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.69	10.21	8.31	+23%
IPP	58.05	57.14	61.63	-7%
1A/60	0.14	0.00	0.34	-100%
2A/60	0.23	0.27	0.27	-0%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 2 · 14 · 15

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 10.2% vs a 8.3% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 11.76 vs 9.06) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 4.60 vs 2.32) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.05	0.05	0.04	+12%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	n/a
PP SOG/60	0.00	0.00	0.00
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	5.47	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 2 · 14 · 15

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~0.0 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	2.50	2.57	1.77	+45%
Hits/60	17.52	19.06	15.20	+25%
Blks/60	2.76	2.70	2.86	-6%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 2 · 14 · 15

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindElite hits volume (97th pct) and role-stable — a bankable hits floor (17.52/60 projected).

ContextBlocks role-stable at 2.70/60 (54th pct league-wide) → 2.76 projected.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.14/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.