Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2647 GP	H229 GP	H118 GP	Prev 3thin
TOI	10.05	9.64	9.26	10.15	–
PP TOI	0.01	0.01	0.03	0.01	–
G	11	10	6	18	–
A	4	3	6	-0	–
PTS	15	14	11	18	–
PPP	0	0	0	0	–
SOG	73	66	71	59	–
PIM	27	30	17	50	–
Hits	193	188	170	219	–
Blocks	50	52	37	77	–

Sample: 47 GP · 445 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingLeft wing · league-wide (of 281)

197Adam Erne-30

198Ryan Greene-30

199Adam Henrique-30

200Reid Schaefer-30

201Casey Cizikas-30

202Rutger McGroarty-30

203Ryan Lomberg-31

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

all5v5

Goals ran at a 6 pace in the second half after 18 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 77% below where it started (30.79 in the first half, 7.16 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Bottom of the league

PP TOI

PP TOI sits in the 3th percentile league-wide (0.01).

Bottom of the league

TOI

TOI sits in the 5th percentile league-wide (9.64).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Scott LaughtonLW · Los Angeles Kings88% match
shared: Hits, Blocks
Elias PetterssonC · Vancouver Canucks87% match
shared: Hits, Blocks
Emil HeinemanLW,RW · New York Islanders86% match
shared: Hits, Blocks
Lawson CrouseLW,RW · Utah Mammoth85% match
shared: Hits, Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Reid Schaefer is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 4
fills: PPP, SOG, G, A
Clayton KellerLW · Utah Mammothcovers 4
fills: PPP, A, SOG, G

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Andrew Brunette (NSH)

Last year: Andrew Brunette full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
TOI	10.05	9.64	n/a
5v5 TOI	9.72	9.48	n/a
PP TOI	0.01	0.01	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 18 · 10 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 10.05: one NHL season — role grown +4% toward a sophomore workload
5v5 TOI → 9.72: one NHL season — role grown +4% toward a sophomore workload
PP TOI → 0.01: same coach (Andrew Brunette) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.0, Q4 0.0) over the full-year 0.0; one NHL season — role grown +4% toward a sophomore workload

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
SOG/60	5.33	5.12	n/a
G/60	0.84	0.81	n/a
iSH%	15.82	15.82	n/a
ixG/60	–	0.59	n/a
iCF/60	–	10.91	n/a
iSCF/60	–	5.52	n/a
iHDCF/60	–	3.37	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 18 · 10 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindAge 22 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

TailwindAge 22 on a single NHL season — projected a development step, not a flat repeat: scoring rates +6% and role +4% toward the mid-20s peak (a young riser improves on last year, not repeats it).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
on-ice SH%	5.72	5.72	n/a
IPP	89.26	89.26	n/a
1A/60	0.13	0.13	n/a
2A/60	0.13	0.13	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 18 · 10 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 5.7%, IPP 89.3%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PP TOI	0.01	0.01	n/a
PP iSH%	–	n/a	n/a
PP SOG/60	0.00	0.00	n/a
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 18 · 10 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.0→0.0 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Andrew Brunette) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.0, Q4 0.0) over the full-year 0.0; one NHL season — role grown +4% toward a sophomore workload) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PIMs/60	2.03	2.29	n/a
Hits/60	14.54	14.54	n/a
Blks/60	3.80	4.04	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 18 · 10 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindElite hits volume (93rd pct) and role-stable — a bankable hits floor (14.54/60 projected).

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 3.65/60 and 2nd-half 2.73 below the 4.04 season rate — projected DOWN to 3.80/60, weighting the recent decline over the n/a 3-yr mark.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.13/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.