Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2675 GP	H236 GP	H139 GP	Prev 345 GP · 1y
TOI	19.80	19.19	17.53	19.36	18.04
PP TOI	0.49	0.56	0.44	0.67	0.74
G	11	14	11	17	7
A	20	20	17	22	17
PTS	31	34	28	39	24
PPP	2	3	2	4	0
SOG	98	96	93	99	80
PIM	18	9	14	4	36
Hits	35	28	19	37	47
Blocks	112	101	86	115	115

Sample: 75 GP · 1,227 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

181Stian Solberg-20

182Declan Carlile-20

183Victor Soderstrom-20

184Denton Mateychuk-21

185Joel Edmundson-21

186Noah Juulsen-22

187Brett Pesce-22

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half fade

HITS

all5v5

Hits ran at a 19 pace in the second half after 37 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 50% above his 3-year rate last season (15.09 against 10.09).

Second-half fade

all5v5

Goals ran at a 11 pace in the second half after 17 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

PIMs/60

PIMs/60 ran 74% below his 3-year rate last season (0.39 against 1.52).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Simon NemecD · Calgary Flames83% match
shared: G
Owen PowerD · Buffalo Sabres83% match
Vladislav GavrikovD · New York Rangers79% match
Travis SanheimD · Philadelphia Flyers75% match
shared: G

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Denton Mateychuk is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Rasmus DahlinD · Buffalo Sabrescovers 4
fills: A, PIM, SOG, PPP
Dougie HamiltonD · New Jersey Devilscovers 5
fills: SOG, PPP, PIM, A
Brandon MontourD · Seattle Krakencovers 3
fills: SOG, PIM, Hits
Donovan SebrangoD · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Rick Bowness (CBJ)

Last year: Dean Evason Q1-Q2 → Rick Bowness Q3-Q4 · hired Jan — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	19.80	19.19	18.04	+6%
5v5 TOI	16.76	16.36	15.83	+3%
PP TOI	0.49	0.56	0.74	-25%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 16 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 19.80: holds last year's role; one NHL season — role grown +3% toward a sophomore workload
5v5 TOI → 16.76: established top role held near 16.4 — the late dip (Q4 15.4) reads mostly as rest / season wear, not lost usage; one NHL season — role grown +3% toward a sophomore workload
PP TOI → 0.49: role tapered late (Q4 0.5 vs 0.6 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.03	3.91	3.37	+16%
G/60	0.51	0.59	0.34	+74%
iSH%	12.59	15.09	10.09	+50%
ixG/60	–	0.23	0.15	+53%
iCF/60	–	9.14	8.09	+13%
iSCF/60	–	2.88	2.02	+43%
iHDCF/60	–	0.68	0.34	+100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 16 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.23 (26th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.15 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindShot volume up 16% (5v5 SOG/60 3.91 vs 3.37) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.20→0.26 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

TailwindAge 22 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

TailwindAge 22 on one real season (45.0 GP before it) with a rising role — projected a development step, not a flat repeat: scoring rates +5% and role +3% toward the mid-20s peak (a young riser improves on last year, not repeats it).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.21	9.76	12.36	-21%
IPP	42.93	46.48	33.33	+39%
1A/60	0.44	0.39	0.51	-24%
2A/60	0.23	0.34	0.17	+100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 16 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskIPP spiked to 46.5% vs 33.3% 3-yr — point participation this far above baseline rarely holds; assist share likely gives a little back.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 9.14 vs 8.09) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 0.68 vs 0.34) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.34 vs 3-yr 0.17) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.49	0.56	0.74	-25%
PP iSH%	6.01	25.04	0.00
PP SOG/60	6.27	5.75	5.41	+6%
PP ixG/60	–	0.73	1.35	-46%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 16 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 0.6→0.5 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.5 vs 0.6 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

RiskPP finishing ran hot (25.0% vs 0.0% 3-yr) with flat PP chances (PP ixG/60 0.73) — point-shot D and pass-first QBs regress hardest.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.53	0.39	1.52	-74%
Hits/60	1.39	1.12	2.19	-49%
Blks/60	3.77	3.42	4.63	-26%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 19 · 16 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskHits tailing off: Q4 1.36/60 and 2nd-half 0.68 below the 1.12 season rate — projected DOWN to 1.39/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.19 3-yr mark.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 3.51/60 and 2nd-half 2.83 below the 3.42 season rate — projected DOWN to 3.77/60, weighting the recent decline over the 4.63 3-yr mark.