Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2652 GP	H224 GP	H128 GP	Prev 389 GP · 2y
TOI	14.11	13.82	14.10	13.34	15.44
PP TOI	0.01	0.01	–	0.01	0.04
G	1	2	0	3	1
A	7	14	19	10	6
PTS	8	16	19	13	6
PPP	0	0	–	0	0
SOG	46	41	24	56	52
PIM	33	24	24	23	40
Hits	204	164	167	162	244
Blocks	112	71	94	52	134

Sample: 52 GP · 634 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

183Victor Soderstrom-20

184Denton Mateychuk-21

185Joel Edmundson-21

186Noah Juulsen-22

187Brett Pesce-22

188Elias Pettersson (D)-22

189Tyson Hinds-22

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

all5v5

Assists ran at a 19 pace in the second half after 10 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

BLK

all5v5

Blocks ran at a 94 pace in the second half after 52 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it up

PIM

all5v5

We’re projecting penalty minutes 38% above last season, 24 to 33.

Bottom of the league

PP TOI

PP TOI sits in the 3th percentile league-wide (0.01).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Braden SchneiderD · New York Rangers81% match
shared: Hits
Martin FehervaryD · Washington Capitals76% match
shared: Hits
Rasmus RistolainenD · Philadelphia Flyers76% match
shared: Hits
Lian BichselD · Dallas Stars75% match
shared: Hits

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Noah Juulsen is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Jared Bednar (COL)

Last year (PHI, traded): Rick Tocchet full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	14.11	13.82	15.44	-11%
5v5 TOI	12.41	12.21	13.00	-6%
PP TOI	0.01	0.01	0.04	-85%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 9 · 17 · 7

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 14.11: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 12.41: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.01: same coach (Jared Bednar) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.0, Q4 0.0) over the full-year 0.0

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	2.06	2.27	2.59	-13%
G/60	0.06	0.09	0.05	+69%
iSH%	2.62	3.96	2.05	+93%
ixG/60	–	0.10	0.11	-8%
iCF/60	–	7.56	8.56	-12%
iSCF/60	–	2.36	2.07	+14%
iHDCF/60	–	0.19	0.26	-26%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 9 · 17 · 7

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 4.0% vs a 2.1% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.10 (3rd pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 2.6% pulls the goal rate ~28% down.

RiskShot volume down 13% (5v5 SOG/60 2.27 vs 2.59) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.91	11.32	8.25	+37%
IPP	27.11	34.55	18.31	+89%
1A/60	0.15	0.19	0.15	+24%
2A/60	0.27	0.57	0.15	+271%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 9 · 17 · 7

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskAssists projected DOWN: on-ice SH% 11.3% (3-yr 8.3%) AND IPP 34.6% (3-yr 18.3%) both ran hot — team finishing + participation luck stacked. Regressing both trims the assist rate ~20%.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.57 vs 3-yr 0.15) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.01	0.01	0.04	-85%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	n/a
PP SOG/60	0.00	0.00	0.00
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	0.00

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 9 · 17 · 7

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.0→0.0 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Jared Bednar) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.0, Q4 0.0) over the full-year 0.0) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.44	1.42	2.12	-33%
Hits/60	10.58	9.26	12.55	-26%
Blks/60	4.64	3.97	4.72	-16%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 19 · 9 · 17 · 7

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 9.26/60 (83rd pct league-wide) → 10.58 projected.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 5.62/60 and 2nd-half 5.29 vs a 3.97 season rate (4.72 3-yr) (81st pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 4.64/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.09/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.