Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2682 GP	H242 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3187 GP · 3y
TOI	18.66	18.48	18.28	17.38	19.14
PP TOI	0.08	0.08	0.06	0.10	0.10
G	3	2	-0	4	4
A	16	21	20	22	13
PTS	19	23	19	27	17
PPP	1	3	2	4	0
SOG	98	104	91	118	90
PIM	23	25	14	37	45
Hits	▼95	97	100	94	128
Blocks	114	111	138	83	132

Sample: 82 GP · 1,257 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingDefense · league-wide (of 303)

182Declan Carlile-20

183Victor Soderstrom-20

184Denton Mateychuk-21

185Joel Edmundson-21

186Noah Juulsen-22

187Brett Pesce-22

188Elias Pettersson (D)-22

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Hits trimmed to 95. His per-82 hits ran 150, 125, 113 and 96 across 2022-26, a steady decline, and the engine projects 103 by leaning on the earlier seasons. 95 follows last season's 96.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

BLK

all5v5

Blocks ran at a 138 pace in the second half after 83 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half fade

PIM

all5v5

Penalty minutes ran at a 14 pace in the second half after 37 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 52% below his 3-year rate last season (2.11 against 4.39).

We project it down

all5v5

We’re projecting assists 24% below last season, 21 to 16.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Defense

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Rasmus RistolainenD · Philadelphia Flyers92% match
shared: Hits
Braden SchneiderD · New York Rangers85% match
shared: Hits
Timothy LiljegrenD · Washington Capitals84% match
Mattias SamuelssonD · Buffalo Sabres82% match
shared: Hits

Complementary Defense

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Joel Edmundson is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Quinn HughesD · Minnesota Wildcovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Zach WerenskiD · Columbus Blue Jacketscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Cale MakarD · Colorado Avalanchecovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
Evan BouchardD · Edmonton Oilerscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Peter Laviolette (LAK) new voice

Last year: Jim Hiller Q1-Q4 · fired Mar → D.J. Smith interim · end Q4 — in-season change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	18.66	18.48	19.14	-3%
5v5 TOI	15.68	15.33	16.19	-5%
PP TOI	0.08	0.08	0.10	-19%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 22 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 18.66: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 15.68: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.08: role tapered late (Q4 0.1 vs 0.1 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.50	4.73	3.65	+30%
G/60	0.13	0.10	0.16	-38%
iSH%	3.25	2.11	4.39	-52%
ixG/60	–	0.23	0.15	+58%
iCF/60	–	11.65	9.16	+27%
iSCF/60	–	2.63	1.97	+34%
iHDCF/60	–	0.53	0.30	+77%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 22 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindGoals projected UP: iSH% cratered to 2.1% vs 4.4% 3-yr while 5v5 ixG/60 0.23 (27th pct league-wide) held/rose — the chances say the finishing rebounds toward 3.3%, lifting the goal rate ~28%.

TailwindShot volume up 30% (5v5 SOG/60 4.73 vs 3.65) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.17→0.29 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

RiskAge 33 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	9.70	9.71	9.64	+1%
IPP	30.63	32.21	23.43	+37%
1A/60	0.23	0.24	0.18	+35%
2A/60	0.36	0.53	0.28	+90%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 22 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskIPP spiked to 32.2% vs 23.4% 3-yr — point participation this far above baseline rarely holds; assist share likely gives a little back.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 11.65 vs 9.16) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 0.53 vs 0.30) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.53 vs 3-yr 0.28) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

ContextDefenseman — weight transition/PP facilitation over raw 2A; secondary assists read a touch better for D than forwards.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.08	0.08	0.10	-19%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	0.00
PP SOG/60	1.68	0.00	6.73	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	0.19	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 22 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~0.1 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.98	1.10	1.47	-25%
Hits/60	4.22	4.06	5.01	-19%
Blks/60	4.51	4.49	4.18	+7%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 21 · 19 · 22 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 4.06/60 (50th pct league-wide) → 4.22 projected.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 4.71/60 and 2nd-half 5.58 vs a 4.49 season rate (4.18 3-yr) (88th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 4.51/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.