Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2678 GP	H237 GP	H125-26	Prev 3thin
TOI	14.01	13.63	13.01	–	–
PP TOI	1.32	1.60	1.16	–	–
G	13	13	6	–	–
A	20	19	24	–	–
PTS	33	32	30	–	–
PPP	5	6	2	–	–
SOG	110	106	96	–	–
PIM	30	29	31	–	–
Hits	189	179	209	–	–
Blocks	48	45	52	–	–

Sample: 78 GP · 919 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingF · league-wide (of 575)

211Oliver Bjorkstrand6

212Alexander Wennberg6

213Kirby Dach5

214Zachary Bolduc5

215Joel Farabee5

216Colton Dach4

217Ivar Stenberg4

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

We project it down

PP TOI

We’re projecting PP TOI 17% below last season, 1.60 to 1.32.

We project it down

PPP

We’re projecting power play points 17% below last season, 6 to 5.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Emil HeinemanLW,RW · New York Islanders89% match
shared: Hits, Blocks
Scott LaughtonLW · Los Angeles Kings89% match
shared: Hits, Blocks
Jake NeighboursLW,RW · St. Louis Blues88% match
shared: Hits, Blocks
Lawson CrouseLW,RW · Utah Mammoth88% match
shared: Hits, Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Zachary Bolduc is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 3
fills: SOG, PPP, A
Clayton KellerLW · Utah Mammothcovers 3
fills: PPP, A, SOG
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 3
fills: PPP, SOG, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Martin St. Louis (MTL)

Last year: Martin St. Louis full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
TOI	14.01	13.63	n/a
5v5 TOI	12.38	11.78	n/a
PP TOI	1.32	1.60	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 0 · 20 · 17

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 14.01: one NHL season — role grown +3% toward a sophomore workload
5v5 TOI → 12.38: one NHL season — role grown +3% toward a sophomore workload
PP TOI → 1.32: role tapered late (Q4 1.2 vs 1.6 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
SOG/60	5.38	5.22	n/a
G/60	0.54	0.52	n/a
iSH%	9.96	9.96	n/a
ixG/60	–	0.84	n/a
iCF/60	–	12.53	n/a
iSCF/60	–	7.90	n/a
iHDCF/60	–	3.33	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 0 · 20 · 17

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindAge 23 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

TailwindAge 23 on a single NHL season — projected a development step, not a flat repeat: scoring rates +4% and role +3% toward the mid-20s peak (a young riser improves on last year, not repeats it).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
on-ice SH%	10.13	10.13	n/a
IPP	61.98	61.98	n/a
1A/60	0.52	0.52	n/a
2A/60	0.46	0.46	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 0 · 20 · 17

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 10.1%, IPP 62.0%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PP TOI	1.32	1.60	n/a
PP iSH%	14.95	14.95	n/a
PP SOG/60	9.36	9.63	n/a
PP ixG/60	–	1.72	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 0 · 20 · 17

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 1.6→1.3 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 1.2 vs 1.6 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PIMs/60	1.66	1.70	n/a
Hits/60	10.80	10.58	n/a
Blks/60	2.78	2.74	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 0 · 20 · 17

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 11.20/60 and 2nd-half 12.45 vs a 10.58 season rate (n/a 3-yr) (86th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 10.80/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

TailwindBlocks surging late: Q4 2.80/60 and 2nd-half 3.15 vs a 2.74 season rate (n/a 3-yr) (56th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 2.78/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.