Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

Hits/60

Hits/60 ran 106% above his 3-year rate last season (15.36 against 7.45).

Second-half fade

all5v5

Assists ran at a 4 pace in the second half after 10 in the first, per 82 games.

Below his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 67% below his 3-year rate last season (6.60 against 19.93).

We project it up

BLK

all5v5

We’re projecting blocks 36% above last season, 66 to 90.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Emil HeinemanLW,RW · New York Islanders84% match
shared: Hits, Blocks
Charlie CoyleC,RW · Columbus Blue Jackets78% match
shared: Blocks, Hits
Elias PetterssonC · Vancouver Canucks77% match
shared: Blocks, Hits
Scott LaughtonLW · Los Angeles Kings76% match
shared: Hits, Blocks

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Tyson Kozak is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Clayton KellerLW · Utah Mammothcovers 4
fills: PPP, A, SOG, G
Nikita KucherovRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 5
fills: A, PPP, G, SOG
Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Lindy Ruff (BUF)

Last year: Lindy Ruff full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	11.46	11.28	10.49	+7%
5v5 TOI	10.03	9.93	9.97	-0%
PP TOI	0.05	0.05	0.03	+60%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 10 · 15 · 7

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 11.46: holds last year's role; age 23 riser — small growth bias
5v5 TOI → 10.03: holds last year's role; age 23 riser — small growth bias
PP TOI → 0.05: holds last year's role; age 23 riser — small growth bias

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	3.98	3.94	2.86	+38%
G/60	0.35	0.26	0.57	-54%
iSH%	14.33	6.60	19.93	-67%
ixG/60	–	0.50	0.80	-38%
iCF/60	–	7.09	9.74	-27%
iSCF/60	–	3.94	6.30	-37%
iHDCF/60	–	1.84	4.01	-54%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 10 · 15 · 7

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextFinishing looks earned: iSH% 6.6% sits near the 19.9% 3-yr mark with 5v5 ixG/60 0.50 (38th pct league-wide) — goals held close to last year.

TailwindShot volume up 38% (5v5 SOG/60 3.94 vs 2.86) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

ContextTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 fell from 0.61 (1st half) to 0.39 (2nd).

TailwindAge 23 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	6.87	7.12	6.57	+8%
IPP	43.65	33.54	60.14	-44%
1A/60	0.27	0.26	0.29	-10%
2A/60	0.00	0.00	0.00

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 10 · 15 · 7

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindIPP 33.5% sits below the 60.1% 3-yr mark — participation should rebound, nudging assists up.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.05	0.05	0.03	+60%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	100.00
PP SOG/60	0.00	0.00	94.74	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	18.90	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 10 · 15 · 7

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~0.0 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.26	0.26	0.57	-54%
Hits/60	12.93	15.36	7.45	+106%
Blks/60	4.89	4.07	6.59	-38%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 14 · 10 · 15 · 7

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 19.08/60 and 2nd-half 17.54 vs a 15.36 season rate (7.45 3-yr) (95th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 12.93/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 3.47/60 and 2nd-half 3.52 below the 4.07 season rate — projected DOWN to 4.89/60, weighting the recent decline over the 6.59 3-yr mark.