Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2682 GP	H242 GP	H140 GP	Prev 3184 GP · 3y
TOI	14.19	14.48	14.20	14.14	12.22
PP TOI	0.30	0.22	0.20	0.23	0.90
G	9	10	8	12	8
A	16	17	22	12	16
PTS	25	27	30	25	24
PPP	1	0	0	0	4
SOG	105	99	108	90	119
PIM	32	31	29	33	31
Hits	48	46	59	33	39
Blocks	54	56	55	57	45

Sample: 82 GP · 978 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

188Josh Dunne-36

189Tyson Kozak-36

190Tim Washe-36

191Jack Drury-38

192Adam Gaudette-39

193Sam Steel-39

194Frederic Gaudreau-39

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

all5v5

Assists ran at a 22 pace in the second half after 12 in the first, per 82 games.

Second-half surge

HITS

all5v5

Hits ran at a 59 pace in the second half after 33 in the first, per 82 games.

Above his 3-year rate

1A/60

1A/60 ran 34% above his 3-year rate last season (0.55 against 0.41).

Below his 3-year rate

SOG/60

SOG/60 ran 26% below his 3-year rate last season (5.21 against 7.04).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Connor McMichaelC,LW · St. Louis Blues83% match
shared: Blocks
Matty BeniersC · Seattle Kraken81% match
shared: Blocks
Morgan FrostC · Calgary Flames81% match
shared: Blocks
Cole PerfettiLW,RW · Winnipeg Jets80% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Jack Drury is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack EichelC · Vegas Golden Knightscovers 3
fills: SOG, A, PPP
Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 3
fills: SOG, PPP, A
Patrick KaneRW · Chicago Blackhawkscovers 3
fills: PPP, A, SOG
Aleksander BarkovC · Florida Pantherscovers 3
fills: A, PPP, SOG

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Andrew Brunette (NSH)

Last year (COL, traded): Jared Bednar full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	14.19	14.48	12.22	+18%
5v5 TOI	11.59	11.94	10.38	+15%
PP TOI	0.30	0.22	0.90	-76%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 20

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 14.19: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 11.59: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.30: role tapered late (Q4 0.2 vs 0.2 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	5.21	5.21	7.04	-26%
G/60	0.40	0.49	0.44	+11%
iSH%	7.60	9.40	6.30	+49%
ixG/60	–	0.72	0.74	-2%
iCF/60	–	10.79	14.16	-24%
iSCF/60	–	6.81	7.69	-11%
iHDCF/60	–	3.13	3.45	-9%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 20

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 9.4% vs a 6.3% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.72 (64th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 7.6% pulls the goal rate ~19% down.

RiskShot volume down 26% (5v5 SOG/60 5.21 vs 7.04) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	7.55	7.99	6.87	+16%
IPP	58.13	57.55	59.50	-3%
1A/60	0.46	0.55	0.41	+34%
2A/60	0.41	0.37	0.44	-16%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 20

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.0%, IPP 57.6%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.30	0.22	0.90	-76%
PP iSH%	6.33	0.00	8.11	-100%
PP SOG/60	9.76	6.74	13.39	-50%
PP ixG/60	–	1.65	1.84	-10%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 20

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.2→0.3 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.2 vs 0.2 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	1.75	1.66	1.82	-9%
Hits/60	3.03	2.82	2.54	+11%
Blks/60	2.33	2.33	2.67	-13%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 20 · 20 · 22 · 20

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindHits surging late: Q4 3.47/60 and 2nd-half 3.57 vs a 2.82 season rate (2.54 3-yr) (36th pct league-wide) — reads as a real role/confidence step, so projected UP to 3.03/60, weighting the finish over the 3-yr baseline.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.33/60 and 2nd-half 2.17 below the 2.33 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.33/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.67 3-yr mark.

TailwindFights / takes majors (0.06/60) — a real PIM source, valuable in banger and PIM formats.