Per 82 GP	2026-27projection	2025-2621 GP	H221 GP	H125-26	Prev 3161 GP · 3y
TOI	13.20	14.11	14.48	–	11.38
PP TOI	0.03	0.02	0.03	–	0.07
G	6	8	8	–	5
A	11	8	9	–	12
PTS	17	15	17	–	17
PPP	0	0	0	–	1
SOG	67	31	31	–	78
PIM	29	16	17	–	33
Hits	124	199	193	–	94
Blocks	44	47	39	–	38

Sample: 21 GP · 245 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

210Jansen Harkins-45

211Nate Danielson-46

212Owen Beck-46

213Tomas Nosek-48

214Arttu Hyry-48

215John Beecher-48

216Radek Faksa-49

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Above his 3-year rate

iSH%

iSH% ran 150% above his 3-year rate last season (14.04 against 4.52).

Below his 3-year rate

SOG/60

SOG/60 ran 68% below his 3-year rate last season (1.71 against 5.31).

We project it down

HITS

all5v5

We’re projecting hits 38% below last season, 199 to 124.

Bottom of the league

1A/60

1A/60 sits in the 4th percentile league-wide (0.00).

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Emil HeinemanLW,RW · New York Islanders86% match
shared: Hits
Mackie SamoskevichLW,RW · Seattle Kraken82% match
shared: Hits
Yakov TreninLW,RW · Minnesota Wild81% match
shared: Hits
Ivan BarbashevLW · Vegas Golden Knights80% match
shared: Hits

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Tomas Nosek is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Jack HughesC,LW · New Jersey Devilscovers 4
fills: SOG, PPP, A, G
Clayton KellerLW · Utah Mammothcovers 4
fills: PPP, A, SOG, G
Artemi PanarinLW · Los Angeles Kingscovers 4
fills: A, PPP, SOG, G
William NylanderRW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 4
fills: PPP, SOG, G, A

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Paul Maurice (FLA)

Last year: Paul Maurice full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	13.20	14.11	11.38	+24%
5v5 TOI	11.01	11.69	9.40	+24%
PP TOI	0.03	0.02	0.07	-64%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 0 · 3 · 18

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 13.20: reverts toward the 3-yr 11.4
5v5 TOI → 11.01: reverts toward the 3-yr 9.4
PP TOI → 0.03: same coach (Paul Maurice) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.0, Q4 0.0) over the full-year 0.0

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	1.66	1.71	5.31	-68%
G/60	0.17	0.24	0.24	-0%
iSH%	8.52	14.04	4.52	+210%
ixG/60	–	0.51	0.62	-17%
iCF/60	–	8.31	10.78	-23%
iSCF/60	–	5.13	5.99	-14%
iHDCF/60	–	3.18	3.21	-1%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 0 · 3 · 18

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskGoals projected DOWN: iSH% ran hot at 14.0% vs a 4.5% 3-yr mark while 5v5 ixG/60 0.51 (39th pct league-wide) was flat — finishing, not process. Regressing iSH% toward 8.5% pulls the goal rate ~28% down.

RiskShot volume down 68% (5v5 SOG/60 1.71 vs 5.31) — volume is the repeatable half, so this caps the goal ceiling.

RiskAge 33 — modest past-prime drag on scoring rates.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	6.10	5.65	6.82	-17%
IPP	65.69	74.49	59.83	+25%
1A/60	0.24	0.00	0.56	-100%
2A/60	0.33	0.49	0.28	+75%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 0 · 3 · 18

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskIPP spiked to 74.5% vs 59.8% 3-yr — point participation this far above baseline rarely holds; assist share likely gives a little back.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.03	0.02	0.07	-64%
PP iSH%	–	n/a	100.00
PP SOG/60	1.35	0.00	5.40	-100%
PP ixG/60	–	0.00	0.63	-100%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 0 · 3 · 18

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindPP role projected up: 0.0→0.0 PP TOI/gp (same coach (Paul Maurice) — carries the elevated finish (2nd half 0.0, Q4 0.0) over the full-year 0.0) — the biggest PPP lever.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.66	0.49	2.46	-80%
Hits/60	8.22	11.24	6.85	+64%
Blks/60	2.17	2.20	2.30	-4%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 0 · 0 · 3 · 18

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindElite hits volume (88th pct) and role-stable — a bankable hits floor (8.22/60 projected).

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.63/60 and 2nd-half 1.63 below the 2.20 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.17/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.30 3-yr mark.