Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2628 GP	H225-26	H128 GP	Prev 3thin
TOI	11.67	11.05	–	10.91	–
PP TOI	1.62	1.53	–	1.53	–
G	▲9	6	–	6	–
A	▲18	15	–	15	–
PTS	▲27	21	–	20	–
PPP	▼7	9	–	9	–
SOG	▲100	91	–	91	–
PIM	▲16	12	–	12	–
Hits	▲34	23	–	23	–
Blocks	▲35	26	–	26	–

Sample: 28 GP · 262 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

208Brendan Gaunce-44

209Marat Khusnutdinov-44

210Jansen Harkins-45

211Nate Danielson-46

212Owen Beck-46

213Tomas Nosek-48

214Arttu Hyry-48

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Rookie baseline: projected role (two-way/PK, PP-gated ceiling; one day could become someone like Couturier) blended with 2025-26 NHL (28 GP) at w=0.50. Per-82 line; GP/availability is separate. Tune here.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

We project it up

BLK

all5v5

We’re projecting blocks 35% above last season, 26 to 35.

We project it up

PTS

all5v5

We’re projecting points 29% above last season, 21 to 27.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Jack QuinnRW · Buffalo Sabres81% match
Cole PerfettiLW,RW · Winnipeg Jets77% match
Igor ChernyshovLW · San Jose Sharks77% match
Anton FrondellC · Chicago Blackhawks75% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Nate Danielson is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Ross JohnstonLW · St. Louis Bluescovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Michael PezzettaLW,RW · Toronto Maple Leafscovers 2
fills: Hits, PIM
Scott SabourinRW · Tampa Bay Lightningcovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits
Jonah GadjovichLW,RW · Florida Pantherscovers 2
fills: PIM, Hits

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Todd McLellan (DET)

Last year: Todd McLellan full season — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
TOI	11.67	11.05	n/a
5v5 TOI	9.90	9.36	n/a
PP TOI	1.62	1.53	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 6 · 22 · 0 · 0

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 11.67: one NHL season — role grown +6% toward a sophomore workload
5v5 TOI → 9.90: one NHL season — role grown +6% toward a sophomore workload
PP TOI → 1.62: one NHL season — role grown +6% toward a sophomore workload

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
SOG/60	5.96	5.72	n/a
G/60	0.48	0.46	n/a
iSH%	8.04	8.04	n/a
ixG/60	–	0.77	n/a
iCF/60	–	10.76	n/a
iSCF/60	–	5.95	n/a
iHDCF/60	–	3.21	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 6 · 22 · 0 · 0

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindAge 21 — still on the up-slope of the scoring curve.

TailwindAge 21 on a single NHL season — projected a development step, not a flat repeat: scoring rates +8% and role +6% toward the mid-20s peak (a young riser improves on last year, not repeats it).

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
on-ice SH%	5.20	5.20	n/a
IPP	67.15	67.15	n/a
1A/60	0.23	0.23	n/a
2A/60	0.23	0.23	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 6 · 22 · 0 · 0

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProject Danielson for a middle-six DET role for 2026-27; cap points unless he earns PP time.

ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 5.2%, IPP 67.2%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PP TOI	1.62	1.53	n/a
PP iSH%	0.00	0.00	n/a
PP SOG/60	9.10	8.41	n/a
PP ixG/60	–	1.55	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 6 · 22 · 0 · 0

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextPP role steady at ~1.6 PP TOI/gp.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3
PIMs/60	0.91	0.92	n/a
Hits/60	1.83	1.83	n/a
Blks/60	2.06	2.06	n/a

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 6 · 22 · 0 · 0

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 1.83/60 (22nd pct league-wide) → 1.83 projected.

ContextBlocks role-stable at 2.06/60 (34th pct league-wide) → 2.06 projected.