Per 82 GP	2026-27projection adj	2025-2677 GP	H240 GP	H137 GP	Prev 375 GP · 1y
TOI	14.44	14.50	13.87	13.78	12.09
PP TOI	0.46	0.64	0.31	1.00	0.32
G	▲13	16	22	10	5
A	▲16	19	19	19	8
PTS	▲29	35	41	29	13
PPP	1	1	0	2	1
SOG	▲85	83	83	83	45
PIM	18	17	12	22	22
Hits	57	45	49	40	60
Blocks	49	42	39	44	51

Sample: 77 GP · 935 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)

206Matthew Poitras-43

207Mark Jankowski-44

208Brendan Gaunce-44

209Marat Khusnutdinov-44

210Jansen Harkins-45

211Nate Danielson-46

212Owen Beck-46

offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): Model reverts his 25-26 breakout (~35 pt pace) to a 24-pt line (-11) by pulling his rates toward a down 24-25 and a 16-GP cameo. He's young and improving across the board (ixG doubled 0.30->0.65, g60 0.33->0.81). Goals ARE xG-supported (~13, his 19% SH regresses toward his risen chances); the harsh part is assists (12 vs 19 paced — 2A reverted toward cameo years). Hedge assists up to 16 (protect the rising playmaking, don't fully trust one breakout). Lands ~29, not a reversion to 24.

Metrics worth highlighting

The charts that move this projection — where he broke from his own 3-year rate, where the season split in half, and where we’re taking the number next year

Second-half surge

iSH%

iSH% finished the year 150% above where it started (6.94 in the first half, 18.45 in the second). The projection leans on how the season ended, so the second half counts for more.

Second-half surge

all5v5

Goals ran at a 22 pace in the second half after 10 in the first, per 82 games.

We project it up

HITS

all5v5

We’re projecting hits 27% above last season, 45 to 57.

We project it down

all5v5

We’re projecting assists 16% below last season, 19 to 16.

Picked automatically from every chart on this card, ranked by how far each number moved. Each claim is measured off the chart drawn beside it.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward

Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit

Cole PerfettiLW,RW · Winnipeg Jets83% match
Matty BeniersC · Seattle Kraken80% match
shared: Blocks
Morgan FrostC · Calgary Flames80% match
shared: Blocks
Igor ChernyshovLW · San Jose Sharks78% match

Complementary Forward

Same position, opposite profile — strong where Marat Khusnutdinov is weak or average, light where he’s strong

Evgeni MalkinC,LW · Pittsburgh Penguinscovers 4
fills: A, PIM, PPP, SOG
Mathew BarzalC,RW · New York Islanderscovers 4
fills: A, SOG, PPP, PIM
Clayton KellerLW · Utah Mammothcovers 3
fills: PPP, A, SOG
Connor BedardC · Chicago Blackhawkscovers 4
fills: A, SOG, PPP, PIM

Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)

This player

the profile below

vs Similar

similar players hug the shape

vs Complementary

complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)

Coaching

2026-27 · Marco Sturm (BOS)

Last year: Marco Sturm full season (1st yr) — no change

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
TOI	14.44	14.50	12.09	+20%
5v5 TOI	12.48	12.15	10.43	+17%
PP TOI	0.46	0.64	0.32	+98%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 20 · 21 · 19

TOI*

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

*Total TOI by quarter reconstructs 5v5+PP quarterly totals plus a held-flat season PK/GP — NST has no all-strength quarterly export. Level is accurate; quarter-to-quarter movement comes from 5v5+PP.

By season — year over year

TOI

5v5 TOI

PP TOI

TOI → 14.44: holds last year's role
5v5 TOI → 12.48: holds last year's role
PP TOI → 0.46: role tapered late (Q4 0.3 vs 0.6 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
SOG/60	4.23	4.23	2.84	+49%
G/60	0.61	0.64	0.38	+68%
iSH%	14.47	15.13	13.38	+13%
ixG/60	–	0.57	0.29	+97%
iCF/60	–	8.08	5.29	+53%
iSCF/60	–	5.51	3.30	+67%
iHDCF/60	–	2.76	1.46	+89%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 20 · 21 · 19

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

By season — year over year

SOG/60

iSH%

ixG/60

iCF/60

iSCF/60

iHDCF/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

SOG

all5v5

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

TailwindProcess rising: 5v5 ixG/60 0.57 (44th pct league-wide) up on the 3-yr 0.29 — the shot quality is real, so the projected goal rate leans on chances, not a hot %.

TailwindShot volume up 49% (5v5 SOG/60 4.23 vs 2.84) — volume is the repeatable half, so this raises the goal ceiling.

TailwindTrajectory: 5v5 ixG/60 climbed 0.47→0.64 across the year — process trending the right way into next season.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
on-ice SH%	10.35	11.45	5.31	+116%
IPP	60.26	59.22	66.96	-12%
1A/60	0.32	0.38	0.23	+65%
2A/60	0.32	0.64	0.15	+327%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 20 · 21 · 19

1A/60

2A/60

By season — year over year

1A/60

2A/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

all5v5

PTS

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskOn-ice SH% hot at 11.5% vs a 5.3% 3-yr mark — teammate finishing regresses (~8% is league-normal), so some assists come off.

TailwindShot-driving up (5v5 iCF/60 8.08 vs 5.29) — real creation underneath, so don't over-regress the helpers.

TailwindHigh-danger setups up (iHDCF/60 2.76 vs 1.46) — the dangerous chances that turn into primary assists are trending up.

RiskAssist gain leans on secondary helpers (2A/60 0.64 vs 3-yr 0.15) — the least repeatable slice; projected back toward baseline.

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PP TOI	0.46	0.64	0.32	+98%
PP iSH%	0.00	0.00	0.00
PP SOG/60	5.16	6.08	2.47	+146%
PP ixG/60	–	1.36	0.44	+209%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 20 · 21 · 19

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

By season — year over year

PP TOI/GP

PP SOG/60

PP ixG/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PPP

PPG

PPA

The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

RiskPP role projected down: 0.6→0.5 PP TOI/gp (role tapered late (Q4 0.3 vs 0.6 full-year) — projected toward the softer finish) — the biggest PPP lever.

TailwindPP chance quality up (PP ixG/60 1.36 vs 0.44) — a real process gain, the kind that sustains PP points.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)	26-27 proj	2025-26	Prev 3	Diff
PIMs/60	0.96	1.03	1.38	-25%
Hits/60	3.19	2.56	4.14	-38%
Blks/60	2.44	2.24	2.99	-25%

By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline

GP 17 · 20 · 21 · 19

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

By season — year over year

PIMs/60

Hits/60

Blks/60

Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection

PIM

all5v5

HITS

all5v5

BLK

all5v5

Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)

ContextHits role-stable at 2.56/60 (31st pct league-wide) → 3.19 projected.

RiskBlocks tailing off: Q4 1.71/60 and 2nd-half 2.03 below the 2.24 season rate — projected DOWN to 2.44/60, weighting the recent decline over the 2.99 3-yr mark.