🏒@HockeyBangers2026-27 projections

Overview

@HockeyBangers

2026-27 Projection

Matthew Poitras

BOS · Age 22.4 · 🇨🇦 Canada · 5′11″, 176 lb · Draft 2022, 54th overall (BOS)
BOSteam
Cposition
206position rank
713skater rank
-43overall
-32offense
-11peripherals
goals
11
assists
18
points
29
power play points
5
shots on goal
109
penalty minutes
25
hits
32
blocked shots
25

Value over replacement, based on 82 games played.
Ideal for H2H 12-team banger category leagues, 16 roster spots.

Per 82 GP2026-27projection adj2025-26thinH23 GPH125-26Prev 366 GP · 2y
TOI13.24–––13.24
PP TOI0.97–––0.97
G▲11–––7
A▼18–––25
PTS▼29–––32
PPP▲5–––1
SOG▲109–––86
PIM▲25–––17
Hits▼32–––36
Blocks▼25–––31

Sample: 3 GP · 34 5v5 min (2025-26) — how much ice time backs these rates

Positional rankingCentre · league-wide (of 271)
203Rodrigo Abols-42
204Samuel Honzek-43
205Jesper Boqvist-43
206Matthew Poitras-43
207Mark Jankowski-44
208Brendan Gaunce-44
209Marat Khusnutdinov-44
offenseperipheralsvalue over replacement

Counts = projected deployment × projected /60 rate, per 82 GP. Rates regress off the process metric (ixG, shot-driving), not last year's finishing %. PP points = projected PP rate (anchored on the 2nd-half PP1 role, finishing regressed) × projected PP TOI.

Context-adjusted (▲/▼ vs the rate-model baseline): [LOW-CONF - 3 NHL GP; mostly a role-based estimate] Rookie baseline: projected role (makes it now, 3rd-line floor; one day could become someone like Cirelli) blended with 2025-26 NHL (3 GP) at w=0.07. Per-82 line; GP/availability is separate. Tune here.

Similar & complementary players

Similar makeup Forward
Closest across all seven categories — match % is the whole-profile fit
Complementary Forward
Same position, opposite profile — strong where Matthew Poitras is weak or average, light where he’s strong
Profile shape — per-82 category values vs the league p99 for the position (same scale as the hero bars)
This player
GAPPPSOGPIMHitsBlocks
the profile below
vs Similar
GAPPPSOGPIMHitsBlocks
similar players hug the shape
vs Complementary
GAPPPSOGPIMHitsBlocks
complements fill the gaps

Deployment

Deployment projection — next-year TOI & PP TOI vs the last two years (the role that drives every count)
Coaching
2026-27 · Marco Sturm (BOS)
Last year: Marco Sturm full season (1st yr) — no change
Metric26-27
proj		2025-26Prev 3Diff
TOI13.24n/a13.24
5v5 TOI11.68n/a11.68
PP TOI0.97n/a0.97
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  0 · 0 · 3 · 0
By season — year over year
TOI
13.2422-2323-2424-2525-2626-27
5v5 TOI
11.6822-2323-2424-2525-2626-27
PP TOI
0.9722-2323-2424-2525-2626-27

Shooting — volume & conversion

How much and how well he shoots — volume (SOG), finishing (% vs chance quality), and the individual shot-quality funnel (iCF ⊇ iSCF ⊇ iHDCF).

Metric (5v5)26-27
proj		2025-26Prev 3Diff
SOG/604.57n/a4.43
G/600.48n/a0.47
iSH%10.55n/a10.55
ixG/60–n/a0.47
iCF/60–n/a10.19
iSCF/60–n/a6.22
iHDCF/60–n/a2.26
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  0 · 0 · 3 · 0
SOG/60
3-yr 4.43Q1Q2Q3Q4
iSH%
3-yr 10.55Q1Q2Q3Q4
ixG/60
3-yr 0.47Q1Q2Q3Q4
iCF/60
3-yr 10.19Q1Q2Q3Q4
iSCF/60
3-yr 6.22Q1Q2Q3Q4
iHDCF/60
3-yr 2.26Q1Q2Q3Q4
By season — year over year
SOG/60
3.9322-2323-2424-2525-26
iSH%
4.0722-2323-2424-2525-26
ixG/60
0.4922-2323-2424-2525-26
iCF/60
10.0522-2323-2424-2525-26
iSCF/60
6.4422-2323-2424-2525-26
iHDCF/60
2.0422-2323-2424-2525-26
Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection
G
1122-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
SOG
10922-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
ContextNo 2025-26 sample — goals/shots projected off the prior 3-yr profile, held flat.

Assists — playmaking & on-ice offense

Primary vs secondary helpers, plus the on-ice offense and luck signals underneath them.

Metric (5v5)26-27
proj		2025-26Prev 3Diff
on-ice SH%8.30n/a8.30
IPP75.78n/a75.78
1A/600.74n/a0.70
2A/600.48n/a0.54
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  0 · 0 · 3 · 0
1A/60
3-yr 0.70Q1Q2Q3Q4
2A/60
3-yr 0.54Q1Q2Q3Q4
By season — year over year
1A/60
0.9422-2323-2424-2525-26
2A/60
0.3122-2323-2424-2525-26
Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection
A
1822-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
PTS
2922-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
TailwindProject Poitras onto the BOS roster for 2026-27 in a bottom-six role; low ceiling near-term.
ContextAssist environment looks normal (on-ice SH% 8.3%, IPP 75.8%).

Power play

PP opportunity and finishing — modelled separately from 5v5.

Metric26-27
proj		2025-26Prev 3Diff
PP TOI0.97n/a0.97
PP iSH%0.00n/a0.00
PP SOG/605.64n/a5.64
PP ixG/60–n/a0.62
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  0 · 0 · 3 · 0
PP TOI/GP
3-yr 0.97Q1Q2Q3Q4
PP SOG/60
3-yr 5.64Q1Q2Q3Q4
PP ixG/60
3-yr 0.62Q1Q2Q3Q4
By season — year over year
PP TOI/GP
1.0122-2323-2424-2525-26
PP SOG/60
5.4222-2323-2424-2525-26
PP ixG/60
0.8622-2323-2424-2525-26
Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection
PPP
522-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
PPG
122-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
PPA
422-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. PPG and PPA are the 2 halves of the PPP above them, split by the projection's own goal/assist mix. PP-only, so the halves are exact.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
ContextLittle/no PP role — PP points capped regardless of finishing.

Physical — PIM · hits · blocks

Peripheral counting categories. Noisier and scorer-biased — read as role over the years, not pure talent.

Metric (5v5)26-27
proj		2025-26Prev 3Diff
PIMs/601.09n/a1.09
Hits/602.10n/a2.10
Blks/601.79n/a1.79
By quarter — 2025-26 vs 3-yr baseline
GP  0 · 0 · 3 · 0
PIMs/60
3-yr 1.09Q1Q2Q3Q4
Hits/60
3-yr 2.10Q1Q2Q3Q4
Blks/60
3-yr 1.79Q1Q2Q3Q4
By season — year over year
PIMs/60
1.2622-2323-2424-2525-26
Hits/60
1.8822-2323-2424-2525-26
Blks/60
1.5722-2323-2424-2525-26
Per-82 count — 3 seasons, 2025-26 halves & 26-27 projection
PIM
2522-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
HITS
3222-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
BLK
2522-2323-2424-25H1H226-27
all5v5
The blue 26-27 point is our projection. The bold line is all situations; the muted line under it is 5v5 alone, so the gap between them is his special-teams production. Full seasons are true per-82 counts; the 2025-26 H1/H2 reconstruct all-strength from the 5v5+PP quarterly exports plus the season's held-flat PK/other. The projected 5v5 point is the engine's even-strength share of the total, converted to 5v5 by his own 5v5-to-even-strength split, so overtime and 4-on-4 scoring stays out of it.
Regression read — where next year's /60 rate lands and why (process over finishing)
ContextHits role-stable at 2.10/60 (25th pct league-wide) → 2.10 projected.
ContextBlocks role-stable at 1.79/60 (25th pct league-wide) → 1.79 projected.